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Msg  30728 of 37548  at  6/15/2013 1:18:58 PM  by


2013-2014 winter outlook- Models favor cooler winter for N. Plains, G. Lakes, Ohio Valley, Up. Midwest, Northeast-from andrews weather centre


Andrew did a very good job last winter generally being ahead of the other weather forecasters and was very articulate on the polar vortex impact, etc.

Preliminary 2013-2014 Winter Forecast

By Andrew at 12:00 PM

Saturday, June 15, 2013


"....Global models generally favor a cooler winter for the North Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest, Northeast and generally places in the top-right quadrant of the United States (if you were to cut the nation into four pieces). Because we're a long time out from the winter, these anomalies are not that significant. As we get closer to December we will start to see these anomalies become more extreme, with the below-normal temperatures getting colder and above-normal temperatures raising their anomaly projection. In the precipitation department, a very La Nina-type set-up appears to be favored, with a stripe of above-normal precipitation from Oklahoma to the U.P. of Michigan. I'm rather skeptical of precipitation forecasts this far out and feel it's best to stick to the analogs and upper-level height anomaly charts we were looking at earlier in this post. Regardless of its accuracy, the premise of a stormy Midwest/Plains and chilly East US can raise excitement for some winter weather lovers.




My analog years are matching up unusually well with long-range forecast models. While these models will change, I find it to be a good sign that there is a rather substantial amount of correlation this far out. My analogs may be revised down the road as we enter summer and early fall, and it is assured that the long range models will change. However, these are my long range estimates for this winter.

-The polar vortex may be at lower latitudes this winter.
-A wetter winter is possible for portions of the Plains and Midwest.
-Cooler weather is possible for portions of the northern US. -

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