Andrew did a very good job last
winter generally being ahead of the other weather forecasters and was very
articulate on the polar vortex impact, etc.
Preliminary 2013-2014 Winter Forecast
By Andrew at
June 15, 2013
"....Global models generally favor a cooler winter for the North Plains,
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest, Northeast and generally places
in the top-right quadrant of the United States (if you were to cut the nation
into four pieces). Because we're a long time out from the winter, these
anomalies are not that significant. As we get closer to December we will start
to see these anomalies become more extreme, with the below-normal temperatures
getting colder and above-normal temperatures raising their anomaly projection.
In the precipitation department, a very La Nina-type set-up appears to be favored,
with a stripe of above-normal precipitation from Oklahoma to the U.P. of
Michigan. I'm rather skeptical of precipitation forecasts this far out and feel
it's best to stick to the analogs and upper-level height anomaly charts we were
looking at earlier in this post. Regardless of its accuracy, the premise of a
stormy Midwest/Plains and chilly East US can raise excitement for some winter
My analog years are matching up unusually well
with long-range forecast models. While these models will change, I find it to
be a good sign that there is a rather substantial amount of correlation this
far out. My analogs may be revised down the road as we enter summer and early
fall, and it is assured that the long range models will change. However, these
are my long range estimates for this winter.
-The polar vortex may be at lower latitudes
-A wetter winter is possible for portions of
the Plains and Midwest.
-Cooler weather is possible for portions of the
northern US. -