I do not post articles on Seeking Alpha on this sector for two key reasons. (1) I lack FAD data because most to not report FAD data. With Health Care REITs, the dividend/FAD ratio is key in setting good dividend CAGRs. I very strongly expect that the same is true here. (2) I lack cap rate data on this sector. The cap rates for Health Care REITs vary significantly by 'property type'. Required Rates of Return assessments are set by cap rates. For Health Care REITs, you can not determine a logical Price/FFO or Price/FAD ratio without knowing the cap rates. I strongly expected that AVB, EQR and ESS own the quality of property in the key locations that would merit significantly lower cap rates -- and that attributes shows up the Price/FFO ratios.
The historical, 2015 and 2016 FFO projections come from Yahoo Finance. The 2017 projection come from NASDAQ.
Apartment Update for 7-31-15 Yields are calculated on the Q2-15 dividend. The percent change numbers are since the first of the year - with the exception of the change in the dividend. The dividend change is since Q2-14. On 6-22-15 HME agreed to be purchased by Lone Star Funds for $75.23/share.
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| Share Price | 15 FFO Est | Q1-15 | Div/ | Div/ | Percent Change | LTM |
Company and ticker | 1-01 | 07-31 | 1-01 | 07-31 | Yield | FFO15 | FFO16 | Price | Pr+Div | FFO | Target | Div |
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Apartment Investment and Management Company | (AIV) | 37.15 | 39.08 | 2.23 | 2.19 | 3.07 | 54.79 | 51.06 | 5.20 | 6.81 | -1.79 | 7.89 | 15.38 |
Avalonbay Communities Inc. | (AVB) | 163.39 | 172.34 | 7.40 | 7.67 | 2.90 | 65.19 | 62.19 | 5.48 | 7.77 | 3.65 | 11.81 | 7.76 |
Camden Property Trust | (CPT) | 73.84 | 79.63 | 4.52 | 4.48 | 3.52 | 62.50 | 58.09 | 7.84 | 10.69 | -0.88 | -1.85 | 6.06 |
Equity Residential | (EQR) | 71.84 | 74.81 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 2.95 | 64.43 | 59.57 | 4.13 | 5.67 | 1.48 | 13.64 | 10.50 |
Essex Property Trust Inc. | (ESS) | 206.60 | 224.91 | 9.34 | 9.49 | 2.56 | 60.70 | 54.39 | 8.86 | 10.95 | 1.61 | 15.30 | 10.77 |
Home Properties Inc. | (HME) | 65.60 | 73.70 | 4.66 | 4.66 | 4.12 | 65.24 | 62.42 | 12.35 | 14.66 | 0.00 | 13.07 | 4.11 |
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. | (MAA) | 74.68 | 80.34 | 5.30 | 5.28 | 3.83 | 58.33 | 54.42 | 7.58 | 10.67 | -0.38 | 2.93 | 5.48 |
Post Properties Inc. | (PPS) | 58.77 | 56.94 | 2.83 | 2.92 | 3.09 | 60.27 | 57.33 | -3.11 | -0.87 | 3.18 | 5.18 | 22.22 |
UDR, Inc. | (UDR) | 30.82 | 33.81 | 1.63 | 1.66 | 3.28 | 66.75 | 62.95 | 9.70 | 12.40 | 1.84 | 12.72 | 6.54 |
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Apartment Average |
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| 3.26 | 62.02 |
| 6.45 | 8.75 | 0.97 | 8.97 | 9.87 |
Student Housing |
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American Campus Communities, Inc. | (ACC) | 41.36 | 37.32 | 2.48 | 2.37 | 4.29 | 67.51 | 62.99 | -9.77 | -7.83 | -4.44 | 0.66 | 5.26 |
Education Realty Trust, Inc. | (EDR) | 36.60 | 31.64 | 2.01 | 1.80 | 4.55 | 80.00 | 72.73 | -13.55 | -11.58 | -10.45 | -2.36 | 9.09 |
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Student Housing Average |
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| -11.66 | -9.71 | -7.44 |
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Sector Average |
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| 3.47 | 64.16 |
| 3.16 | 5.39 | -0.56 | 7.18 | 9.38 |
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Apartment Price/FFO Ratios 07-31
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| FFO / Share | % FFO Growth | Price/FFO | 15 FFO Range |
Co. | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 14-15 | 15-16 | 16-17 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | High | Low | Range |
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AIV | 204 | 207 | 219 | 235 | 251 | 5.80% | 7.31% | 6.81% | 17.84 | 16.63 | 15.57 | 224 | 214 | 4.57% |
AVB | 505 | 725 | 767 | 804 | 857 | 5.79% | 4.82% | 6.59% | 22.47 | 21.44 | 20.11 | 771 | 738 | 4.30% |
CPT | 411 | 429 | 448 | 482 | 511 | 4.43% | 7.59% | 6.02% | 17.77 | 16.52 | 15.58 | 452 | 442 | 2.23% |
EQR | 235 | 315 | 343 | 371 | 396 | 8.89% | 8.16% | 6.74% | 21.81 | 20.16 | 18.89 | 347 | 339 | 2.33% |
ESS | 759 | 789 | 949 | 1059 | 1119 | 20.28% | 11.59% | 5.67% | 23.70 | 21.24 | 20.10 | 966 | 938 | 2.95% |
HME | 437 | 433 | 466 | 487 | 515 | 7.62% | 4.51% | 5.75% | 15.82 | 15.13 | 14.31 | 469 | 461 | 1.72% |
MAA | 435 | 499 | 528 | 566 | 622 | 5.81% | 7.20% | 9.89% | 15.22 | 14.19 | 12.92 | 533 | 520 | 2.46% |
PPS | 301 | 244 | 292 | 307 | 329 | 19.67% | 5.14% | 7.17% | 19.50 | 18.55 | 17.31 | 296 | 284 | 4.11% |
UDR | 144 | 156 | 166 | 176 | 184 | 6.41% | 6.02% | 4.55% | 20.37 | 19.21 | 18.38 | 167 | 163 | 2.41% |
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Average |
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| 9.41 | 6.93 | 6.58 | 19.39 | 18.12 | 17.02 |
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Student Housing |
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ACC | 222 | 238 | 237 | 254 | 274 | -0.42% | 7.17% | 7.87% | 15.75 | 14.69 | 13.62 | 241 | 232 | 3.80% |
EDR | 165 | 186 | 180 | 198 | 206 | -3.23% | 10.00% | 4.04% | 17.58 | 15.98 | 15.36 | 182 | 178 | 2.22% |
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Sector Average |
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| 7.37 | 7.23 | 6.46 | 18.89 | 17.61 | 16.56 |
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