Yields in data below are calculated on Q4-10 dividends.
|
| Share Price | 10 FFO Estimate |
| Div/ | Percent Change |
| Company | 1-01 | 12-31 | 1-01 | 12-31 | Yield | FFO | Price | Pr+Div | 10 FFO | Target |
|
| Health Care REIT | HCN | 44.32 | 47.64 | 3.19 | 3.13 | 5.79 | 88.18 | 7.49 | 13.72 | -1.88 | 9.98 |
| Health Care Prop | HCP | 30.54 | 36.79 | 2.18 | 2.19 | 5.06 | 84.93 | 20.46 | 26.56 | 0.46 | 27.19 |
| Health Care Reality | HR | 21.46 | 21.17 | 1.39 | 1.29 | 5.67 | 93.02 | -1.35 | 4.24 | -7.19 | 6.28 |
| LTC Prop | LTC | 26.75 | 28.08 | 2.01 | 1.88 | 5.98 | 89.36 | 4.97 | 11.25 | -6.47 | 9.79 |
| Nationwide Hlth | NHP | 34.18 | 36.38 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 5.17 | 82.82 | 6.44 | 11.94 | 0.00 | 16.62 |
| Omega Health | OHI | 19.45 | 22.44 | 1.71 | 1.61 | 6.60 | 91.93 | 15.37 | 22.98 | -5.85 | 22.37 |
| Senior Housing | SNH | 21.87 | 21.94 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 6.75 | 87.06 | 0.32 | 7.09 | -1.73 | 8.89 |
| Universal Health | UHT | 32.03 | 36.53 | 2.82 | 2.61 | 6.62 | 92.72 | 14.05 | 21.60 | -7.45 | 3.03 |
| Ventas | VTR | 43.74 | 52.48 | 2.71 | 2.85 | 4.08 | 75.09 | 19.98 | 24.87 | 5.17 | 27.62 |
|
| Average |
|
|
|
|
| 5.75 | 87.23 | 9.75 | 16.03 | -2.77 | 13.18 |
|
Dividend dates are:
| HCN: 11-20-10 | HCP: 11-24-10 | HR : 12-03-10 | LTC: monthly | NHP: 12-04-10 |
|
| OHI: 11-16-10 | SNH: 11-13-10 | UHT: 12-30-10 | VTR: 12-30-10 |
|
Health Care Price/FFO Ratios 12-31
|
| FFO / Share | % FFO Growth | Price/FFO | 11 FFO Range |
| Co. | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 08-09 | 09-10 | 10-11 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | High | Low | Range |
|
| HCN | 313 | 338 | 312 | 313 | 330 | -7.69 | 0.32 | 5.43 | 15.27 | 15.22 | 14.44 | 340 | 319 | 6.71% |
| HCP | 214 | 225 | 214 | 219 | 255 | -4.89 | 2.34 | 16.44 | 17.19 | 16.80 | 14.43 | 269 | 246 | 10.50% |
| HR | 151 | 163 | 165 | 129 | 137 | 1.23 | -21.82 | 6.20 | 12.83 | 16.41 | 15.45 | 149 | 114 | 27.13% |
| LTC | 190 | 191 | 189 | 188 | 206 | -1.05 | -0.53 | 9.57 | 14.86 | 14.94 | 13.63 | 210 | 202 | 4.26% |
| NHP | 212 | 229 | 224 | 227 | 244 | -2.18 | 1.34 | 7.49 | 16.24 | 16.03 | 14.91 | 250 | 239 | 4.85% |
| OHI | 142 | 130 | 147 | 161 | 185 | 13.08 | 9.52 | 14.91 | 15.27 | 13.94 | 12.13 | 188 | 163 | 15.53% |
| SNH | 162 | 167 | 169 | 170 | 178 | 1.20 | 0.59 | 4.71 | 12.98 | 12.91 | 12.33 | 185 | 172 | 7.65% |
| UHT | 250 | 249 | 280 | 261 | 260 | 12.45 | -6.79 | -0.38 | 13.05 | 14.00 | 14.05 | 260 | 260 | 0.00% |
| VTR | 269 | 274 | 266 | 285 | 310 | -2.92 | 7.14 | 8.77 | 19.73 | 18.41 | 16.93 | 318 | 303 | 5.26% |
|
| Average |
|
|
|
| 2.53 | -0.66 | 7.78 | 15.27 | 15.41 | 14.25 |
|
UHT only has one analyst giving FFO estimates, and given the run rate the past three quarters of $0.70/quarter or $2.80/year, the estimates for 2010 and 2011 appear overly bearish.
FFO/Share History
|
| FFO/Share/Year | Average FFO Growth /Yr |
| Co. | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 10-09 | 09-08 | 10-08 | 10-04 | 10-01 |
|
| HCN | 2.51 | 2.66 | 2.79 | 2.86 | 3.03 | 2.94 | 3.13 | 3.38 | 3.12 | 3.13 | 3.30 | 0.32 | -7.69 | -3.69 | 1.68 | 2.60 |
| HCP | 1.66 | 1.71 | 1.63 | 1.66 | 1.89 | 1.82 | 2.14 | 2.25 | 2.14 | 2.19 | 2.55 | 2.34 | -4.89 | -1.28 | 5.05 | 3.39 |
| HR | 2.68 | 2.70 | 2.73 | 2.76 | 2.28 | 2.13 | 1.51 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.29 | 1.37 | -21.82 | 1.23 | -10.30 | -10.95 | -6.97 |
| LTC | 1.71 | 1.32 | 1.17 | 1.54 | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.88 | 2.06 | -0.53 | -1.05 | -0.79 | 3.47 | 2.03 |
| NHP | 1.63 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 1.66 | 1.84 | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.29 | 2.24 | 2.27 | 2.44 | 1.34 | -2.18 | -0.42 | 5.46 | 3.92 |
| OHI | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 1.32 | 1.42 | 1.30 | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.85 | 9.52 | 13.08 | 11.30 | 12.93 | 21.12 |
| SNH | 1.49 | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 1.57 | 1.62 | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.70 | 1.78 | 0.59 | 1.20 | 0.89 | 2.18 | 1.58 |
| UHT | 2.03 | 2.72 | 2.53 | 2.63 | 2.47 | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.49 | 2.80 | 2.61 | 2.60 | -6.79 | 12.45 | 2.83 | 0.07 | 3.49 |
| VTR | 1.59 | 1.36 | 1.53 | 1.79 | 2.08 | 2.44 | 2.69 | 2.74 | 2.66 | 2.85 | 3.10 | 7.14 | -2.92 | 2.11 | 8.31 | 7.21 |
|
Dividend History [based on Q4 Dividends]
|
| Dividend/Share/Quarter | Average Dividend Growth /Yr |
| Co. | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 10-09 | 09-08 | 10-08 | 10-04 | 10-01 |
|
| HCN | 58.5 | 58.5 | 58.5 | 60.0 | 62.0 | 64.0 | 66.0 | 68.0 | 68.0 | 69.0 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 2.36 | 1.86 |
| HCP | 41.5 | 41.0 | 41.5 | 41.8 | 42.0 | 42.5 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 46.0 | 46.5 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.80 | 1.28 |
| HR | 58.5 | 60.5 | 62.5 | 64.5 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | 30.0 | -22.08 | 0.00 | -11.04 | -10.24 | -5.72 |
| LTC | 0.0 | 3.3 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 | 7.69 | 0.00 | 3.85 | 5.82 | na |
| NHP | 46.0 | 46.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 39.0 | 41.0 | 44.0 | 44.0 | 47.0 | 6.82 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 4.11 | 0.57 |
| OHI | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 | 27.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 37.0 | 23.33 | 0.00 | 11.67 | 11.98 | na |
| SNH | 30.0 | 31.0 | 31.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 33.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 37.0 | 2.78 | 2.86 | 2.82 | 2.47 | 2.38 |
| UHT | 47.5 | 48.5 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 56.0 | 57.0 | 58.0 | 59.0 | 59.5 | 60.5 | 1.68 | 0.85 | 1.26 | 3.11 | 2.76 |
| VTR | 22.6 | 23.8 | 26.8 | 32.5 | 36.0 | 39.5 | 47.5 | 51.2 | 51.2 | 53.5 | 4.39 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 8.84 | 10.25 |
|
Note: Dividend safety in the first spreadsheet is measured by the Div/FFO ratio - and that is not the best ratio to use. That would be the Div/AFFO, DIV/FAD or DIV/CAD ratio. And FFO and AFFOs vary significantly for some REITs.
What follows are brief summaries from the Q3-10 earnings releases. I am still interested in collective efforts at gathering this information. Why do collective efforts? [1] Unless you know AFFOs, you do not know a REITs dividend safety or its potential to grow. [2] SSNOI trends tend to show up in forward FFO and AFFO trends. [3] Consensus FFO estimates that I gather from Yahoo finance can be flakey. A REITs guidance on FFO and AFFOs is a big help. [4] The experience of the last several years shows that debt metrics matter. The div cutting REITs have strongly tended to have weak debt metrics.
Most of the following data comes only from the earning releases, as I lack the time to look up the earning supplements.
Health Care Q3-10 Earnings
HCN Reports FFO of $0.79 vs. $0.77 in Q3-09 Health Care REIT 'normalized' reported Q3-10 FFO [normalization edits out transaction cost, non-recurring G&A expenses, a gain on extinguishment of debt, and held for sale operating expenses] of $99.429 million [$0.79/share] compared with $89.180 million [$0.77/share] in Q3-09. Diluted shares outstanding rose to 125.042 million from 111.749 million in Q3-09. Net income attributable to common stockholders fell to $1.124 million [$0.01/share] compared with $19.130 million [$0.17/share] in Q3-09. "Normalized" FAD was $92.588 million [$0.74/share] compared with $83.236 million [$0.72/share] in Q3-09 with a Normalized FAD Payout Ratio of 87% vs. 88% in Q3-09. HCN gave 2010 normalized FFO guidance of $3.13 to $3.16 with Normalized FAD between $2.89 to $2.92. HCN has $415.380 million in 'loans receivable' along with $213.163 million in 'equity investments'. In Q3-10 HCN took a $28.918 million 'provision for loan losses' that was included in its net income calculation, but excluded from normalized FFO and FAD calculations. The provision expense plus $18.835 million in 'transaction costs' [HCN prepaid $159 million of secured debt in September while issuing $450 million in senior notes] is what caused the drop in net income.
HCP Reports FFO of $0.54 vs. $0.52 in Q3-09 HCP reported Q3-10 FFO [before giving effect to loan impairments of $71.693 million] of $167.774 million [$0.54/share] compared to $149.265 million [$0.52/share] in Q3-09. Net income applicable to common shares rose to $16.995 million [$0.05/share] compared to a loss of $52.397 million [- $0.18/share] in Q3-09. Diluted shares outstanding rose to 311.092 million from 284.812 million in Q3-09. Year-over-year adjusted SSNOI performance increased by 4.8%. HCP gave 2010 FFO guidance of $2.18 and $2.24/share and net income applicable to common shares to range between $0.96 and $1.02/share. HCP has $1.853 billion in 'loans receivable' and took $15.123 million in impairment charges in Q3-09 and also had a $101.973 'litigation provisions' in Q3-09. Q3-10 had $71.693 million in impairment charges. FFO before this normalization was $96.081 million [$0.31/share] compared with $32.169 million [$0.11/share] in Q3-09.
HR Reports FFO of $0.17 vs. $0.44 in Q3-09 HR reported Q3-10 FFO of $10.735 million [$0.17/share - which includes impairment charges for discontinued operations of $7.361 million, or $0.12/share - partially offset by gains on sales of properties of $4.092 million] compared with $25.821 million [$0.44/share] for Q3-09. Weighted average common share rose to 62.370 million from 58.174 million in Q3-09. Funds available for distribution totaled $20.029 million [$0.32/share] compared to dividends of $19.111 million. Revenues totaled $65.123 million, compared with the Q3-09's $62.329 million. Net income for Q3-10 was a loss of $3.248 million [- $0.05/share] compared with $9.104 million [$0.16/share] in Q3-09.
LTC Reports Normalized FFO of $0.48 vs. $0.47 in Q3-09 LTC Properties reported Q3-10 FFO [excluding non-cash rental income and non-cash compensation charges] of $9.698 million [$.36/share] compared with $12.073 million [$0.44/share] in Q3-09. Net income allocatable to common stockholders was $5.571 million [$0.22/share] compared to $7.431 million [$0.32/share] in Q1-09. ['Net Income' was hurt with a charge of $2.4 million due to its redemption of prefferred stock.] Reversing the effect of the preferred stock redemption on FFO to get
'normalized FFO', the numbers were $12.947 million or $0.48/share compared with $12.073 million or $0.47/share in Q3-09. LTC's revenues were up [$18.517 million compared with $17.199 million in Q3-09] while expenses rose even more [$7.056 million compared with $5.929 million in Q3-09].
LTC's Debt to market capitalization ratio was 6.3%, while its common equity to market cap was 78.4%. LTC's LTM interest coverage ratio was 25.1x while its fixed charge coverage ratio was 4.0x. LTC's initial term of least is generally 10 to 15 years - and the weighted average remaining lease term is 8.3 years. LTC has one lease maturity in 2011 with annual rent totaling $0.2 million; three in 2012 with annual rent totaling $1.2 million; and two in 2013 with annual rent totaling $0.9 million. LTC's mortgage portfolio contains 39 loans, totaling $65.5 million, secured by 35 SNFs, 15 ALFs, and one combination of SNF/ALF/ILF. The interest rates range from 9.8% to 14.3% with a weighted average current yield of 11.3%. The loan maturities range from 2011 to 2019 with an average of 40 months to maturity. The majority of loans provide for annual increases in the interest rate.
NHP Reports FFO of $0.59 vs. $0.56 in Q3-09 Nationwide Health Properties reported Q3-10 FFO of $74.219 million [$0.59/share with 126.497 million shares outstanding] compared to $63.377 million [$0.56/share with 109.477 million shares outstanding] in Q3-09. FAD was $72.987 million [$0.58/share] compared to $62.802 million [$0.56/share] in Q3-09. Net income available to common stockholders was $39.854 million [$0.31/share] compared to $29.692 million [$0.27/share] in Q3-09. Revenue was $114.045 million compared to $97.011 million in Q3-09. NHP gave 2010 FFO/share guidance of $2.28 to $2.27/share. FAD guidance is from $2.24 to $2.23/share.
OHI Reports FFO of $0.44 vs. $0.36 in Q3-09 Omega Healthcare Investors reported Q3-10 FFO of $42.482 million [$0.44/share with 95.987 million shares outstanding] compared to $29.960 million [$0.36/share with 83.858 million shares outstanding] in Q3-09. Net income available to common stockholders was $14.736 million [$0.15/share] compared to $18.867 million [$0.22/share] in Q3-09. [Net income fell due to depreciation rising from $11.093 million in Q3-09 to $27.742 million in Q3-10.] Adjusted FFO was $43.490 million [$0.4531/share] compared to $30.670 million [$0.3657/share] in Q3-09. OHI gave 2010
AFFO/share guidance of $1.72 to $1.76. OHI gave 2010
FFO/share guidance of $1.48 to $1.52.
OHI's Adjusted interest coverage ratio was 3.3x. OHI's Adjusted fixed charge coverage ratio was 2.9x. With Total debt of $1.148 billion and book value of Stockholders' equity at $1.102 billion, OHI had a Book capitalization of $2.169 billion and a Total debt / adjusted book capitalization ratio of 52.4%. With a Market capitalization of common stock at 9/30/2010 [priced $22.45] of $2.205 billion and Market capitalization of preferred series D at 9/30/2010 [at $25.70] of $111.538 million, OHI a Total market capitalization of $2.317 billion and a Adjusted total debt / total market capitalization ratio of 32.8%.
UHT Reports FFO of $0.61 vs. $0.70 in Q3-09 Universal Health Realty Income Trust reported Q3-10 FFO of $7.466 million [$0.61/share] as compared to $8.295 million [$0.70/share] in Q3-09. UHT had total revenues of $7.171 million compared with $7.924 million in Q3-09. Net income was $3.387 million [$0.27/share] as compared to $4.571 million [$0.38/share] during Q3-09.
SNH Reports FFO of $0.42 vs. $0.41 in Q3-09 Senior Housing Properties reported Q3-10 normalized FFO of $53.460 million [$0.42/share] compared with $49.420 million [$0.41/share] in Q3-09. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding increased to 127.423 million, compared to 121.665 million in Q3-09. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $28.078 million [$0.22/share] compared with $15.565 million [$0.13/share] in Q3-09. Total rental income was $80.961 million compared with $72.010 million in Q3-09. With total debt at book value of $1.091 billion and market capitalization of $4.087 billion, the debt/market cap ratio was 26.7%. The weighted average interest rate on debt was 6.971%. EBITDA/interest expense ratio was 3.6x.
VTR Reports FFO of $0.73 vs. $0.66 in Q3-09 Ventas reported Q3-09 normalized FFO of $115.447 million [$0.73/share] compared with $103.386 million [$0.66/share] in Q3-09. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding increased to 157.941 million, compared to 156.516 million in Q3-09. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $57.898 million compared with $49.805 million in Q3-09. SNOI was $38.1 million compared to $33.0 million in Q3-09 - up 5.6%. Net debt was $2.854 billion and the net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio was 4.3x. VTR's debt to total capitalization at 9-30-10 was approximatelz 27%. VTR gave 2010 FFO guidance of a range between $2.84 and $2.86/share.
Health Care REIT Preferred Stocks
|
| Comp | Dividend | Current | Yield | Yield | Call | Cap Gain |
|
| Price |
| @ Par | Date | Potential |
|
| HCN pF | 1.9063 | 25.37 | 7.5138 | 7.6250 | 09-14-09 | -1.46% |
| HCP pE | 1.8125 | 24.73 | 7.3292 | 7.2500 | 08-15-08 | 1.09% |
| HCP pF | 1.7750 | 24.58 | 7.2213 | 7.1000 | 12-03-08 | 1.71% |
| LTC pF | 2.0000 | 25.99 | 7.6953 | 8.0000 | 02-23-09 | -3.81% |
|
| Preferred YTD Price and Yield Changes |
|
| Comp | Current | Yield | 12-31-09 | Yield | % Price |
| Price |
| Price |
| Change |
|
| HCN pF | 25.37 | 7.5138 | 24.70 | 7.7176 | 4.24 |
| HCP pE | 24.73 | 7.3292 | 23.08 | 7.8531 | 12.15 |
| HCP pF | 24.58 | 7.2213 | 22.88 | 7.7579 | 12.27 |
| LTC pF | 25.99 | 7.6953 | 24.28 | 8.2372 | 12.45 |
|
| Preferred to Common Yield Spreads & Quality Metrics |
|
| Preferred | Yield | Common | Spread | Rating | Mkt | Debt | Int |
|
| Yield |
|
| Cap | Book | Cover |
|
| HCN pF | 7.51 | 5.71 | 1.80 | BB | 318 | 48% | 3.7x |
| HCP pE | 7.33 | 5.00 | 2.33 | BB+ | 700 | 65% | 2.6x |
| HCP pF | 7.22 | 5.00 | 2.22 | BB+ | 280 | 65% | 2.6x |
| LTC pF | 7.70 | 5.56 | 2.14 | none | 166 | 8% | 3.5x |
It is my opinion that the sharing of due diligence and the group creation of an investment resource is a major part of what should happen on a message board. The quick exchange of opinions is OK. But that should not be 100% of the message traffic.
