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Re: thoughts and questionsi pm'd my buddy who knows oil much better than i asking if my previous post was off the mark.....while his charts on the cantarell field output don't copy they show that almost half the output is liquids...at least the links work...... Subject: RE: was i too far off the mark? Not at all! I haven't paid close attention to Brazil's offshore finds, but I didn't recall hearing that the salt was molten. I know it's hot at those depths and I knew that the salt required corrosion-resistant pipe, but don't recall hearing that the heat, per se, required different pipe. But, it could very well be that I had just forgotten those details. I've also heard that Colombia has lots of heavy oil similar to what Venezuela has. Also, there's speculation that this same stuff will be found all along the flank of the Andes. Regardless, it ain't cheap to produce, as the Canadians have learned. A chart recently posted on the BRY board: (Much of the worldwide data includes liquids which can't be substituted for crude oil. It gets confusing.) In case you want to follow up with more, here's Matt Simmons' latest presentation on the subject. http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/OTC Topical Luncheon.pdf And this recent post on The Oil Drum. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395#more (Here's a chart from this post.) Fig 12 - Mexico Cantarell Field Production Rate - click to enlarge And a quote from this TOD post: "IEA oil supply warnings have been made in late 2008 when chief economist Birol said that the world needs the equivalent of four new Saudi Arabias just to maintain existing production to 2030." It simply cannot be done and one reason I like oil as an investment. The greatest risk to investing in oil is the politicians. Otherwise, it would be a slam dunk. Just one of many paradigm shifts that we're having to deal with. Interesting times, indeed!!!!! |
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