Great post, V_C. I totally agree with what you have written.
When I wrote about how I believe that the S/D pendulum will "quickly" swing from glut to shortage, I didn't mean that would happen "soon." What is happening now is that a momentum of production cutting is merely "building." The point that I wanted to make is that when the time comes for that momentum to stall and reverse, some time down the road, that is going to be a *very* hard thing to accomplish, and the "overshoot" will be quite severe.
We have a lot of time between now and then, I agree, and the timing could be quite weather dependent. Strongly unsupportive weather continuing for several more months will "coil thepricing spring" a lot tighter. A switch to strongly supportive weather, if and when that should happen, especially if it happens only after July 1, could be the trigger to release that coiled pricing spring. But if weather stays unsupportive longer than that, it really isn't clear how long prices may stay low.
My point was/is, when the switch does come, (a) it will be fast, (b) it will be severe, (c) it will persist for many months if not years, and (d) physical supply issues will be serious problems that no price will be able to solve on short time scales that will present themselves.
LL
