Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage) | BRY Message Board Posts

Berry Petroleum Company

  BRY website

BRY   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 

 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message   Post Message   Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  112862 of 153617  at  4/5/2013 10:45:06 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

Data.(.gsc format).......................................www.robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.gsc
Data.(.ods format).......................................www.robry825.com/Robry_Data_Historical.ods
Spreadsheet Application..............................www.robry825.com

=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline..........EIA-Wtd.Model..Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)_____YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
12/28/12...-18.2..-15.8...-13.6...-15.0...-17.0..-23.8...-20.6...-123.0.......-117......-124.......-135.........-127................30........393.........-28........302
01/04/13...-24.9..-26.0...-25.4...-25.9...-26.4..-27.7...-30.2...-186.4.......-192......-186.......-201.........-192...............-81........324.......-141........237
01/11/13...-25.0..-21.2...-20.8...-20.7...-18.8..-16.4...-13.8...-136.8.......-135......-138.......-148.........-120.............-147........323.......-191........247
01/18/13...-14.3..-15.0...-20.7...-27.1...-30.0..-29.7...-29.0...-165.8.......-150......-166.......-172.........-139.............-142........330.......-161........277
01/25/13...-22.5..-17.0...-25.1...-34.1...-34.1..-32.5...-28.6...-193.0.......-186......-191.......-194.........-190.............-184........313.......-203........265
02/01/13...-24.1..-20.2...-17.1...-11.2.....-7.2..-12.8...-25.5...-117.0.......-125......-118.......-118.........-127.............-217........358.......-252........307
02/08/13...-27.3..-23.5...-24.2...-22.4...-22.5..-17.3...-19.8...-156.0.......-176......-157.......-157.........-168.............-263........353.......-327........280
02/15/13...-20.1..-17.2...-13.9...-16.8...-18.0..-16.8...-16.9...-119.7.......-116......-120.......-127.........-123.............-218........373.......-280........316
02/22/13...-19.5..-24.1...-22.9...-20.7...-28.0..-27.5...-28.4...-170.0.......-188......-173.......-171.........-165.............-295........313.......-378........245
03/01/13...-21.4..-18.0...-18.9...-18.5...-20.0..-17.8...-20.8...-135.4.......-132......-138.......-146.........-124.*...........-360........271.......-426........228
03/08/13...-21.1..-21.0...-19.5...-19.7...-19.9..-21.9...-21.9...-144.0.......-156......-147.......-145.........-117.............-439........198.......-505........154
03/15/13...-11.3....-4.4.....-3.1.....-7.2...-10.3..-13.3...-12.5.....-61.0.........-67........-65.........-62...........-55.............-498........165.......-575........119
03/22/13.....-9.9....-8.4...-11.6...-13.3...-16.5..-17.5...-17.8.....-94.0.......-118......-100.........-95...........-83.............-640..........58.......-737.........-12
03/29/13...-15.1..-12.6...-13.1...-17.4...-15.0..-13.2.....-7.7.....-93.0.........-96........-96.........-94...........-64.............-780.........-34.......-870.........-99
04/05/13.....-0.8......1.0....-1.5.....-4.1i....-3.1i....-2.7i.....1.3i......-9.0i........-18i........-10............................................-811.........-69.......-884i......-137
04/12/13......0.9i.....0.3i.....0.7i......0.4i.....0.4i.....0.4i.....0.4i........3.5i...........4i...........4
...* Manually-drawn baseline



====Estimate of Operationally Available Working Gas Storage Capacity (in BCF)====
..................(Prepared from information for gas week ended 03/15/13)
___________Data Sample___________________Capacity___Inventory__%Full___
Publicly available data................................................1993...............872.........43.7
EIA-Reported data (100% of US Storage)..................4278(e).........1872.........43.7(e)
......(e).Estimate of Capacity calculated as 1872 / (872/1993) = 4278


=======================================================Past.Weekly.Runs=======================================================
...Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.......Injecting.........Withdrawing........Injecting.........Withdrawing.........Injecting.........Withdrawing
___2004________2004/5_______2005________2005/6________2006________2006/7_______2007________2007/8________2008________2008/9________2009_______2009/10_______2010________2010/11_______2011_______2011/12________2012_______2011/12__
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................03/20..4266...............................03/19..4221.................................................................................03/16..4185.........................
..................................................04/01..3709.................................................................................03/30..3852..................................................................................03/27..4308...............................03/26..4167.................................................................................03/23..4076.........................
..................................................04/08..3715...............................04/07..3499...............................04/06..3855..................................................................................04/03..4315...............................04/02..4156.................................................................................03/30..4082.........................
..................................................04/15..3683...............................04/14..3493...............................04/13..3877...............................04/11...3829...............................04/10..4296...............................04/09..4105...............................04/08..4299...............................04/06..4098.........................
..................................................04/22..3632...............................04/21..3494...............................04/20..3920...............................04/18...3801...............................04/17..4262...............................04/16..4066...............................04/15..4256...............................04/13..4077.........................
..................................................04/29..3593...............................04/28..3481......10/27..3664......04/27..3853...............................04/25...3758...............................04/24..4189...............................04/23..4056...............................04/22..4214...............................04/20..4037.........................
..................................................05/06..3569...............................05/05..3479......11/03..3673......05/04..3802...............................05/02...3730...............................05/01..4143...............................04/30..4046...............................04/29..4201...............................04/27..4035.........................
.........................11/12..3480......05/13..3550...............................05/12..3473......11/10..3680......05/11..3746......11/09..3799......05/09...3722...............................05/08..4108...............................05/07..4031......11/05..4129......05/06..4171...............................05/04..4002.........................
.........................11/19..3486......05/20..3512......11/18..3471......05/19..3467......11/17..3663......05/18..3702......11/16..3792......05/16...3705...............................05/15..4086...............................05/14..4017......11/12..4133......05/13..4121...............................05/11..3986......11/09..4218
.........................11/26..3481......05/27..3496......11/25..3474......05/26..3474......11/24..3666......05/25..3677......11/23..3792......05/23...3712......11/21..3837......05/22..4044...............................05/21..4013......11/19..4117......05/20..4081...............................05/18..3980......11/16..4197
.........................12/03..3496......06/03..3447......12/02..3475......06/02..3466......12/01..3665......06/01..3647......11/30..3791......05/30...3704......11/28..3855......05/29..4037...............................05/28..4018......11/26..4120......05/27..4066......11/25..4094......05/25..4003......11/23..4222
.........................12/10..3486......06/10..3472......12/09..3464......06/09..3457......12/08..3656......06/08..3612......12/07..3803......06/06...3682......12/05..3867......06/05..3980......12/04..4044......06/04..3997......12/03..4085......06/03..4041......12/02..4102......06/01..3976......11/30..4255
.........................12/17..3485......06/17..3399......12/16..3462......06/16..3452......12/15..3642......06/15..3568......12/14..3810......06/13...3692......12/12..3854......06/12..3966......12/11..4032......06/11..3992......12/10..4104......06/10..4003......12/09..4083......06/08..3966......12/07..4245
.........................12/24..3501......06/24..3400......12/23..3453......06/23..3469......12/22..3630......06/22..3574......12/21..3825......06/20...3663......12/19..3836......06/19..3949......12/18..4027......06/18..3986......12/17..4114......06/17..3985......12/16..4079......06/15..3963......12/14..4238
.........................12/31..3509......07/01..3459......12/30..3453......06/30..3475......12/29..3620......06/29..3574......12/28..3829......06/27...3636......12/26..3841......06/26..3935......12/25..4052......06/25..3966......12/24..4132......06/24..3957......12/23..4060......06/22..3924......12/21..4229
.........................01/07..3468......07/08..3448......01/06..3484......07/07..3463......01/05..3629......07/06..3584......01/04..3832......07/04...3635......01/02..3832......07/03..3918......01/01..4040......07/02..3955......12/31..4126......07/01..3940......12/30..4050......06/29..3917......12/28..4215
.........................01/14..3449......07/15..3439......01/13..3469......07/14..3474......01/12..3629......07/13..3576......01/11..3824......07/11...3634......01/09..3853......07/10..3913......01/08..4069......07/09..3966......01/07..4144......07/08..3936......01/06..4051......07/06..3960......01/04..4212
.........................01/21....n/a.......07/22..3444......01/20..3476......07/21..3475......01/19....n/a.......07/20..3579......01/18..3844......07/18...3631......01/16..3883......07/17..3912......01/15..4074......07/16..3963......01/14..4149......07/15..3931......01/13..4057......07/13..3967......01/11..4206
.........................01/28..3493......07/29..3434......01/27..3453......07/28..3474......01/26..3659......07/27..3566......01/25..3845......07/25...3612......01/23..3910......07/24..3911......01/22..4064......07/23..3955......01/21..4144......07/22..3933......01/20..4077......07/20..3968......01/18..4181
.........................02/04..3506......08/05..3427......02/03..3443......08/04..3461......02/02..3681......08/03..3611......02/01..3881......08/01...3600......01/30..3933......07/31..3914......01/29..4086......07/30..3946......01/28..4146......07/29..3929......01/27..4073......07/27..3979......01/25..4188
.........................02/11..3504......08/12..3419......02/10..3456......08/11..3458......02/09..3703......08/10..3620......02/08..3838......08/08...3596......02/06..3957......08/07..3906......02/05..4085......08/06..3931......02/04..4158......08/05..3908......02/03..4073......08/03..3983......02/01..4205
.........................02/18..3507......08/19..3413......02/17..3471......08/18..3451......02/16..3717......08/17..3613......02/15..3852......08/15...3574......02/13..4031......08/14..3919......02/12..4107......08/13..3918......02/11..4175......08/12..3896......02/10..4065......08/10..4008......02/08..4249
.........................02/25..3519......08/26..3396......02/24..3459......08/25..3455......02/23..3768......08/24..3607......02/22..3859......08/22...3586......02/20..4090......08/21..3875......02/19..4111......08/20..3903......02/18..4190......08/19..3882......02/17..4059......08/17..4023......02/15..4236
.........................03/04..3582......09/02..3406......03/03..3476......09/01..3465......03/02..3804......08/31..3608......02/29..3886......08/29...3589......02/27..4184......08/28..3875......02/26..4137......08/27..3913......02/25..4223......08/26..3883......02/24..4066......08/24..4061......02/22..4281
.........................03/11..3621......09/09..3408......03/10..3487......09/08..3488......03/09..3867......09/07..3608......03/07..3878......09/05...3615......03/06..4278......09/04..3886......03/05..4201......09/03..3937......03/04..4234......09/02..3886......03/02..4078......08/31..4070......03/01..4228
.........................03/18..3678......09/16..3411......03/17..3504......09/15..3519......03/16..3863......09/14..3639......03/14..3872......09/12...3641......03/13..4245......09/11..3903......03/12..4215......09/10..3958......03/11..4269......09/09..3908......03/09..4091......09/07..4091......03/08..4277
.........................03/25..3699......09/23..3435......03/24..3523......09/22..3542......03/23..3889......09/21..3651......03/21..3847......09/19...3661...............................09/18..3918...............................09/17..3972......03/18..4266......09/16..3918...............................09/14..4125......03/15..4278
10/01..3421...............................09/30..3456......03/31..3513......09/29..3567...............................09/28..3667......03/28..3837......09/26...3705...............................09/25..3937...............................09/24..4004......03/25..4269......09/23..3930...............................09/21..4128
10/08..3428...............................10/07..3459...............................10/06..3588...............................10/05..3686......04/04..3861......10/03...3719...............................10/02..3947...............................10/01..4025......04/01..4325......09/30..3943...............................09/28..4143
10/15..3442...............................10/14..3457...............................10/13..3609...............................10/12..3700...............................10/10...3733...............................10/09..3974...............................10/08..4036...............................10/07..3977...............................10/05..4151
10/22..3451...............................10/21..3455...............................10/20..3628**............................10/19..3723...............................10/17...3768...............................10/16..4000...............................10/15..4072...............................10/14..4004...............................10/12..4179
10/29..3475...............................10/28..3469.................................................................................10/26..3751...............................10/24...3795...............................10/23..4029...............................10/22..4087...............................10/21..4028...............................10/19..4188
11/05..3482**............................11/04..3488.................................................................................11/02..3779**............................10/31...3814...............................10/30..4031...............................10/29..4102**............................10/28..4062...............................10/26..4198
..................................................11/11..3474**................................................................................................................................11/07...3826...............................11/06..4030.................................................................................11/04..4101...............................11/02..4205
........................................................................................................................................................................................................11/14...3828**............................11/13..4038.................................................................................11/11..4097...................................................
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/20..4035.................................................................................11/18..4095**................................................
...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................11/27..4050**....................................................................................................................................................
**= Best Estimate



====Past Weekly Runs vs EIA (Best Model Bracketed)=====
................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly
10/20/10..(10/15/10)..............83.......93..........95.5
11/27/10..(10/22/10)..............67.......71..........73.5
11/03/10..(10/29/10)..............55.......67..........69.5
11/10/10..(11/05/10)..............14.......19..........19.2
11/17/10..(11/12/10)................4........-5...........-5.7
11/24/10..(11/19/10)................0........-7...........-7.7
12/01/10..(11/26/10).............-20......-23.........-23.7
12/08/10..(12/03/10).............-85......-89.........-90.1
12/15/10..(12/10/10)...........-161....-164.......-165.7
12/22/10..(12/17/10)...........-188....-184.......-185.7
12/29/10..(12/24/10)...........-142....-136.......-137.7
01/05/11..(12/31/10)...........-128....-135.......-136.7
01/12/11..(01/07/11)...........-146....-138.......-138.2
01/19/11..(01/14/11)...........-236....-243.......-243.2
01/26/11..(01/21/11)...........-169....-164 (A).-164.2
02/02/11..(01/28/11)...........-184....-189.......-189.2
02/09/11..(02/04/11)...........-217....-209.......-210.0
02/16/11..(02/11/11)...........-267....-233.......-234.6
02/23/11..(02/18/11).............-86......-81.........-82.6
03/02/11..(02/25/11).............-83......-85.........-86.6
03/09/11..(03/04/11).............-71......-71.........-73.7
03/16/11..(03/11/11).............-41......-56.........-59.6
03/23/11..(03/18/11)...............-7........-6...........-9.6
03/30/11..(03/25/11)............... 6.......12............8.4
04/06/11..(04/01/11).............-49......-45.........-47.2
04/13/11..(04/08/11)..............24.......28..........34.1
04/20/11..(04/15/11)..............42.......47..........53.1
04/27/11..(04/22/11)..............19.......31..........37.1
05/04/11..(04/29/11)..............55.......72..........78.1
05/11/11..(05/06/11)..............60.......70..........73.4
05/18/11..(05/13/11)..............80.......92..........94.9
05/25/11..(05/20/11)..............89.....105........107.9
06/01/11..(05/27/11)..............79.......83..........85.9
06/08/11..(06/03/11)..............68.......80
06/15/11..(06/10/11)..............64.......69
06/22/11..(06/17/11)..............90.......98
06/29/11..(06/24/11)..............71.......78
07/06/11..(07/01/11)..............84.......95
07/13/11..(07/08/11)..............81.......84
07/20/11..(07/15/11)..............51.......60
07/27/11..(07/22/11)..............30.......43
08/03/11..(07/29/11)..............30.......44
08/10/11..(08/05/11)..............25.......25
08/17/11..(08/12/11)..............50.......50
08/24/11..(08/19/11)..............83.......73
08/31/11..(08/26/11)..............62.......55
09/07/11..(09/02/11)..............69.......64
09/14/11..(09/09/11)..............92.......87
09/21/11..(09/16/11)..............95.......89
09/28/11..(09/23/11)............117.....111
10/05/11..(09/30/11)..............96.......97
10/12/11..(10/07/11)............109.....112
10/19/11..(10/14/11)............104.....103
10/26/11..(10/21/11)..............90.......92
11/02/11..(10/28/11)..............68.......78
11/08/11..(11/04/11)..............30.......37
11/15/11..(11/11/11)..............22.......12
11/22/11..(11/18/11)..............18.........9
11/30/11..(11/25/11)..............12........-1
12/07/11..(12/02/11).............-10......-20
12/14/11..(12/09/11).............-94....-102
12/21/11..(12/16/11).............-95....-100
12/27/11..(12/23/11).............-82......-81..(early run)
01/25/12..(12/23/11).............-85......-81..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(12/30/11).............-74......-76..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/06/12)...........-105......-95..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/13/12).............-86......-87..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/20/12)...........-192....-192
02/01/12..(01/27/12)...........-125....-132
02/08/12..(02/03/12).............-81......-78
02/14/12..(02/10/12)...........-115....-127
02/22/12..(02/17/12)...........-177....-166
02/29/12..(02/24/12).............-96......-82
03/07/12..(03/02/12).............-91......-80
03/14/12..(03/09/12).............-68......-64
03/21/12..(03/16/12)..............14.......11
03/28/12..(03/23/12)..............56.......50 R
04/04/12..(03/30/12)..............33.......42
04/11/12..(04/06/12)..............11.......16 R (B)
04/18/12..(04/13/12)..............24.......23 R
04/25/12..(04/20/12)..............35.......47
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............19.9....28..(Friday-night run)(before leaving for vacation)
04/28/12..(04/27/12)..............23.0....28..(Friday-night Subjective "Best guess")
05/09/12..(05/04/12)..............25.......30
05/16/12..(05/11/12)..............47.......61
05/23/12..(05/18/12)..............66.......77
05/30/12..(05/25/12)..............62.......71
06/06/12..(06/01/12)..............52.......62

............................................Old.......New
.........................................4-Year....52-Wk
................For Week...........Wkly......Wkly.....Wkly..Interpolated
__Run____Ending______Model__ Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly
06/12/12..(06/08/12)..........{66.4}......73.4........67
06/20/12..(06/15/12)..........{66.1}......67.7........62
06/29/12..(06/22/12)..........{56.0}......60.0........57

................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly
07/05/12..(06/29/12)..............40.......39
07/12/12..(07/06/12)..............n/a......33
07/19/12..(07/13/12)..............28.......28
07/25/12..(07/20/12)..............25.......26
08/01/12..(07/27/12)..............21.......28
08/06/12..(08/03/12)..............30.......24
08/15/12..(08/10/12)..............26.......20
08/21/12..(08/17/12)..............47.......47
08/28/12..(08/24/12)..............69.......66
09/05/12..(08/31/12)..............27.......28
09/12/12..(09/07/12)..............22.......27
09/19/12..(09/14/12)..............66.......67
09/26/12..(09/21/12)..............73.......80
10/03/12..(09/28/12)..............66.......77
10/11/12..(10/05/12)..............71.......72
10/16/12..(10/12/12)..............52.......51
10/23/12..(10/19/12)..............66.......67
10/31/12..(10/26/12)..............67.......65
11/07/12..(11/02/12)..............18.......21
11/14/12..(11/09/12).............-30.....-18............................(12 BCF miss in US-eastern region..... 35 withdrawal Wkly Model vs 23 withdrawal EIA)
11/20/12..(11/16/12).............-34.....-31.(C)
11/27/12..(11/23/12)...............-7........4............................(13 BCF miss..... 7 BCF Producing region, 6 BCF Eastern region)
12/04/12..(11/30/12).............-83.....-73............................(10 BCF miss..... 6 BCF Producing region, 4 BCF Eastern region)
12/11/12..(12/07/12)...............-5........2............................(..7 BCF miss in US Eastern region)
12/18/12..(12/14/12).............-87.....-82
12/26/12..(12/21/12).............-76.....-72
01/03/13..(12/28/12)...........-123...-135............................(-10 BCF miss in US-eastern region..... 74 withdrawal Wkly Model vs 84 withdrawal EIA)
01/09/13..(01/04/03)...........-186...-201............................(-15 BCF miss......-8.3 BCF Producing........-7.8 BCF East........+1.0 West)
01/16/13..(01/11/13)...........-137...-148............................(-11 BCF miss......-4.3 BCF Producing........-8.2 BCF East........+1.8 West)
01/23/13..(01/18/13)...........-164...-172............................(..-8 BCF miss......-1.0 BCF Producing........-5.3 BCF East........ -1.2 West)
01/30/13..(01/25/13)...........-189...-194
02/06/13..(02/01/13)...........-118...-118
................(02/08/13).....................-157
02/20/13..(02/15/13)...........-120...-127............................(..-7 BCF miss.....+1.1 BCF Producing........-7.3 BCF East........ -0.6 West) ( 5 BCF Eminence storage field cert.cap abandonment?)
02/27/13..(02/22/13)...........-174...-171
03/06/13..(03/01/13)...........-138...-146............................(..-8 BCF miss.....+1.8 BCF Producing......-10.6 BCF East........ -0.6 West) (12 BCF Hester storage field cert.cap abandonment?)
03/13/13..(03/08/13)...........-147...-145
03/19/13..(03/15/13).............-66.....-62
03/27/13..(03/22/13)...........-100.....-95
04/03/13..(03/29/13).............-96.....???

Notes (On above):
......(A) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been removed from the EIA's originally-reported 174 BCF withdrawal estimate.
......(B) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been re-added to the EIA's originally-reported 8 BCF injection estimate.
......(C) For purposes of analysis, the 7 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been deducted to the EIA's originally-reported 38 BCF withdrawal estimate.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.


 
     e-mail to a friend      printer-friendly     add to library      
| More
Recs: 18     Views: 492
Previous Message  Next Message   Post Message   Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board


About Us    Contact Us    Follow Us on Twitter    Members Directory    Help    Advertise
Not a member yet? What are you waiting for? Join Now
Want to contribute? Support InvestorVillage by donating
2003-2014 Investorvillage.com. All rights reserved. User Agreement
   
Financial Market Data provided by
.

Loading...