Yes, HFC benefits greatly from the incredible WTS-Cushing WTI spread, but they also bring in a lot of WCS from Canada, trading at $29 below WTI.
In Q3 (in which Holly earned $2.90), both spreads were a lot lower than today. 3-2-1 cracks were higher, but not by as much as spreads are higher now. Holly is going to print EPS with a $2 handle for Q4, with a shot at $9 EPS for 2012. Then they will print near $2 for Q1, where analyst expections are for $1.30.
WTS-WTI will compress from these levels over time, as will WCS-WTI, but will remain higher for longer than anyone expects.
That Brent-WTI spread's bit a bit more stubborn than most expected, for example.