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* Rates are going to rise this year (to Congress, and repeated in September)
* We will only raise rate when data suggests it.
* Inflation is too low
* But we are confident inflation will rise next year.
* Low interest rates may be causing financial bubbles.
Roughly half the things she says suggests an increase in rates, and the other half suggests not.
I don't think they have a plan at all at this point. They were all set to raise rate in Sept and then China problem surface and they worried about the implication of raising rate (both economically and psychologically). So fast forward to Dec.. If China problem continue, I think it is very clear that they won't raise rate. And there are a whole lot of other events that can happen in the next couple months and force them to stay put. However, if everything is peachy, they will certainly like to raise rate..The truth, I think, is that we are awfully weak economically, 1Q was a negative GDP quarter and 1H we averaged about 1.5%+ GDP growth. 3Q does not look particularly strong either and in the 1.5+-% range. That is why economist have a debate on short rate at all. If US and WW economy are not so weak, we should already have a higher short rate today. The first possible moment, Fed will raise rate. But what come after the first rate hike will be another data dependent event...