We've learned quite a bit in the past 3 months that help refine the subscriber estimates. I think its very difficult to estimate how much further we have to go on DTV burn-off of legacy subscribers. The TiVo adds last quarter reflect the DTV loss.
- Charter adds negligible & delayed roll-out
- Ono launch numbers
- Suddenlink numbers
- RCN numbers (via private conversations)
- DTV degradation not being offset by new DTV box
- Reduced churn of stand-alone subscribers
I expect continued reduced churn of stand-alone subscribers reflecting a stronger domestic hardware/software product portfolio and lower up-front costs. This trend should continue as Comcast XFINITY launch should help numbers in the San Fran Bay Area. I expect we will see a launch outside of the Bay Area in Q2 and TiVo/Comcast marketing in Q2.
The launch of the non-DVR set-top box in the US (August timeframe) with significantly improved whole-home software and without a subscription fee will be the turning point for stand-alone subs in Q3/Q4. I expect we will see a non-DVR launch in the UK in the Q3/Q4 timeframe as well.
