I agree with the possible buy out offer will be before the end of
this year after UF phase IIB trial result and NBI-98854 TD phase III top
line data in later October or earlier November.
UF
phase IIB trial safety data will likely survive because it is just half
year treatment impact which would be likely in line with UF phase IIA
THREE month treatment safety data. UF phase IIB efficacy data should be
decent as previous data shown.
I am much more confident in NBI-98854 TD phase III top line data because
our TD clinical trial team has built up necessary experience to design
the right protocols and to execute the TD phase III trial with know how.
When TD phase IIB trial result with statistical significant p<0.001, and OLD drug tetrabenazine was effective enough to treat TD from earlier trials, as well as, SD-809, an improved version of tetrabenazine, phase II-III trial result was successful lately; NBI-98854 TD phase III top line data successful chance is very good to me.
Clinical
trial process is built on the existing best science, when a phase II
and phase III trials are designed with same protocols in mind, executed
and controlled by the same experts, the results will likely to be close
to each other.
I have took the risk for
FIRST elagolix phase III trial top line data, and I will have no
problem to face the coming trial result data releases in next two to
three months.
No thing is sure thing until it is proved to be so