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Prescriptions for W/E 6/13/08SUMMARY
The pullback in scrip readings seems a little severe, coming off the post-holiday, post-adjustment week. Such is life for Ranexa. The 13-week COMPOUND GROWTH numbers all returned to the .5% to 1.0% range. The number of CONSISTENT USERS pulled back to 36,375, a new record. Using the conservative .7% w-o-w growth figure achieved in W/E 4/18//08, the 1-yr. forward projection of RUN RATE is $135 million. Using the less-conservative and more optimistic 1% w-o-w growth rate after July '08, the projection is $154 million. These higher growth rate projections should be taken with a grain of salt. New Rxs: 2,995, down 6.6% from the prior week, but still 6th best on record.
The
COMPOUND GROWTH STATISTICS:
(Note 1): back to more modest levelsRefill Rxs: 5,420, down 3.7% from the prior week, but still 2nd best on record. Total Rxs: 8,415, down 4.7% from the prior week, but still 3rd best or record.
New Rxs: 4-week (0%); 6-week (.2%); 13-week (.5%).
Refill Rxs: 4-week (.5%); 6-week (1.1%); 13-week 1.0%) Total Rxs: 4-week (.3%); 6-week (.7%); 13-week (.8%). The TRx RUN RATE (CONSISTENT USERS) based on 30-day average prescription: The adjusted (to a 30.4 day average ) monthly TRx run rate is 36,375, a new record. The similarly adjusted monthly change is 317. (Note 2) The PROJECTED 1-yr FORWARD SCRIP/REVENUE RUN RATE: Using CONSERVATIVE assumptions of lowest compound weekly Total Rx growth recorded in the last 13 weeks -- .7% growth in W/E 4/18/08 -- (for SCRIP projections) and 85% 500 mg./15% 1000mg., 1-mo. prescriptions, with no non-reported internet prescriptions (for REVENUE translation using $2,136 annual price for 500 mg/day), the 8,415 weekly scrips projects to a 1-yr. forward run rate of about 12,094 weekly scrips, 52,553 monthly scrips (CONSISTENT USERS), and a 1-yr. forward ANNUAL REVENUE RUN RATE one-year out of about $129 million. NOTE: I'm dialing back the acceleration values to 1%, 1.5% and 2%, presenting a 1% rate and dropping the 2.5% values as being somewhat over-optimistic for the time being. Under the concept of an acceleration of growth rates after an expected improved label after the late July 2008 PDUFA, the comparable rates for 1% compound w-o-w growth commencing in August 2008 is $147 million; for 1.5%, $184 million; and for 2%, $230 million. (Note 3). Recognize, however, that the FDA may well not meet the PDUFA date and therefore the more optimistic projections appear to be wildly optimistic. Scrip growth is a LAGGING INDICATOR relative to news announcements and that the stock price is more likely to be driven by LEADING news events such as European approval(s), partnering announcements accompanied by substantial cash infusions, Ranexa label improvement and expansion, overall stock market/sector movements, hedge fund transactions, and the like. Connect the dots. ValueSleuth Note 1: The compound growth rates are
calculated using a rolling base composed of the average weekly scrips
over a equal length period ending prior to the subject length period.
For example, the current 6-week compound growth rate is calculated over
a base of the average scrips for the 7th through the12th prior weeks.
Note 2: Under the conservative assumption that an average
New and/or Refill prescription is for 30 days, this measure is HIGHLY
SIGNIFICANT as an indication of how many individuals are actually using
Ranexa.
The measure would remove the effects of how individual doctors
prescribe Ranexa and
how many have tried
but subsequently dropped use.
Note 3:
These are the
kind of forward values that are typically discounted into current stock
price, but recognize that most biotech analysts discount projected data
of 2-3 yrs. out at any given point in time. HOWEVER, RECOGNIZE THAT A
YEAR FROM NOW IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE NEW LABEL WILL HAVE BEEN APPROVED
and MANY OTHER THINGS WILL HAVE HAPPENED, such as European action on
the Ranexa approval application.
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