Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation) | CWEI Message Board Posts

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Msg  428552 of 538215  at  3/6/2012 8:58:03 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/30/11.....-4.8....-0.5......1.0.....-0.3.....-0.6.....-1.8......0.6....-6.4
01/06/12......1.5......2.5.....-0.1....-4.7...-12.9.....-0.8......4.3...-10.1
01/13/12......2.7.....-0.5....-2.8.....-2.4.....-0.9.....-2.2....-4.4...-10.5
01/20/12.....-0.4....-1.0.....-1.1......2.8......4.8......2.6......1.0......8.7
01/27/12.....-1.5......1.2......1.0......4.0......5.2......5.3......6.4....21.6
02/03/12......0.3.....-1.5....-0.5......3.0......5.1......3.0.....-0.1......9.3
02/10/12......4.3......1.7......0.1.....-1.5......0.1......5.9......4.0....14.7
02/17/12......1.3.....-2.4....-0.2......4.3......5.3......5.4....11.1....24.8
02/24/12......3.3......1.4......0.4.....-0.9......2.3......7.2......3.9....17.4
03/02/12......0.8......2.3......2.8......3.2......2.0......8.0......3.2....22.2
03/09/12......5.1......4.4i............................................................9.5i



===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/30/11.....-7.7....-4.0.....-5.0.....-7.7.....-6.8....-5.7.....-7.2...-44.1
01/06/12...-10.7..-10.0.....-5.7......1.6.....-4.3.....-2.1....-8.2...-39.5
01/13/12...-14.0..-13.2...-11.7...-12.5...-11.7....-9.2.....-4.4...-76.7
01/20/12......4.6......5.4......0.3.....-5.2....-1.7......3.9......3.3....10.6
01/27/12.....-0.9....-0.8.....-8.1.....-9.8.....-7.2....-7.6.....-8.7...-43.1
02/03/12...-12.0....-8.7.....-8.4...-13.2...-17.9..-16.6...-13.7...-90.5
02/10/12.....-7.3....-7.4.....-7.4.....-9.8.....-5.6......2.4......0.7..-34.3
02/17/12......4.6......8.8......8.5......3.9.....-1.1....-2.6......2.6....24.8
02/24/12.....-3.0......0.5......2.1....-2.5.....-7.0.....-6.5.....-6.1..-22.5
03/02/12.....-1.0......4.1......0.6....-2.1.....-6.1.....-1.8.....-4.5..-10.8
03/09/12.....-1.5......1.3i...........................................................-0.2i



=================Fair-Value Model==================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
02/02/12.....-0.40......2.91....34.07.....Fair-Value < 2.91
02/03/12.....-0.41......2.90....34.15.....Fair-Value < 2.90
02/04/12.....-0.37......2.90....34.22.....Fair-Value < 2.90
02/05/12.....-0.35......2.89....34.30.....Fair-Value < 2.89
02/06/12.....-0.33......2.88....34.40.....Fair-Value < 2.88
02/07/12.....-0.33......2.87....34.53.....Fair-Value < 2.87
02/08/12.....-0.28......2.85....34.71.....Fair-Value Much < 2.85
02/09/12.....-0.13......2.84....34.88.....Fair-Value Much < 2.84
02/10/12.....-0.04......2.83....35.02.....Fair-Value < 2.83
02/11/12......0.00......2.82....35.15.....Fair-Value = 2.82 ***
02/12/12.....-0.05......2.80....35.29.....Fair-Value < 2.80 ***
02/13/12.....-0.04......2.79....35.46.....Fair-Value < 2.79 ***
02/14/12......0.05......2.78....35.63.....Fair-Value > 2.78 ***
02/15/12......0.16r.....2.76....35.80.....Fair-Value > 2.76
02/16/12......0.25......2.75....36.00.....Fair-Value > 2.75
02/17/12......0.44......2.74....36.14.....Fair-Value Much > 2.74
02/18/12......0.62......2.73....36.27.....Fair-Value Much > 2.73
02/19/12......0.73......2.72....36.41.....Fair-Value Much > 2.72
02/20/12......0.81......2.72....36.53.....Fair-Value Much > 2.72
02/21/12......0.82......2.71....36.65.....Fair-Value Much > 2.71
02/22/12......0.82......2.70....36.80.....Fair-Value Much > 2.70
02/23/12......0.87......2.70....36.95.....Fair-Value Much > 2.70
02/24/12......0.87......2.69....37.11r....Fair-Value Much > 2.69
02/25/12......0.90r.....2.69....37.28.....Fair-Value Much > 2.69
02/26/12......0.99r.....2.68....37.44r....Fair-Value Much > 2.68
02/27/12......1.08r.....2.67....37.62r....Fair-Value Much > 2.67
02/28/12......1.12r.....2.67....37.79r....Fair-Value Much > 2.67r
02/29/12......1.11r.....2.66....37.96.....Fair-Value Much > 2.66
03/01/12......1.21......2.65....37.14.....Fair-Value Much > 2.65
03/02/12......1.31......2.64....37.31.....Fair-Value Much > 2.64
03/03/12......1.45......2.63....37.47.....Fair-Value Much > 2.63
03/04/12......1.52......2.62....38.64.....Fair-Value Much > 2.62



Fair Value Crossings (From 01/30/12 Model Run)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/02/02......2.39........8.28.....(on $19.77 oil)
.....06/30/02......3.38........7.83.....(on 26.41 oil)
.....10/27/02......3.69........7.97.....(on 29.43 oil)
.....03/27/03......6.56........5.29.....(on 34.67 oil)
.....03/21/04......5.53........6.38.....(on 35.30 oil)
.....06/02/04......5.95........6.43.....(on 38.23 oil)
.....01/08/05......6.20........7.38.....(on 45.81 oil)
.....04/08/05......6.64........7.77.....(on 51.64 oil)
.....07/14/06......6.08......11.77.....(on 71.58 oil)
.....10/01/06......6.12......11.31.....(on 61.74 oil)
.....02/22/07......6.88........8.40.....(on 57.77 oil)
.....08/17/07......6.61......10.89.....(on 71.97 oil)
.....12/18/07......6.96......13.18.....(on 91.65 oil)
.....05/01/08......9.67......11.17.....(on 108.02 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil)
.....01/28/10......5.26......14.54.....(on 76.48 oil)

.....02/11/12......2.82......35.15.....(on 99.00 oil) ***
..........to..............................................................
.....02/14/12......2.78......35.63.....(on 98.95 oil) ***


*** Potential Fair-value snapshot generated 2/11 through 2/14
at approximately $2.80, contingent upon EIA Monthly actuals
and the monthly climate audit.




 
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