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Msg  428548 of 535253  at  3/6/2012 8:56:35 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

============US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)=============
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model---------------------------.......---Wkly EIA---.....Baseline
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total___ Model__Actual__(Neutral)
11/25/11.....-2.7....-0.2.....-0.4.....-0.8.....-0.2......0.4......2.9........0.0............5..........-1.............-2
12/02/11......4.8......3.7......0.3.....-3.3....-5.5.....-8.7...-11.3.....-19.0........-19.........-20...........-31
12/09/11...-11.4....-9.3.....-9.3...-12.4...-15.8..-21.0...-22.7...-101.0.......-101......-102.........-111
12/16/11...-15.1..-17.4...-17.2...-16.1...-13.2....-9.8...-11.2.....-99.0.......-100......-100.........-113
12/23/11...-13.5..-13.7...-11.8...-12.5...-10.8....-8.6...-10.1.....-80.0.........-84........-81...........-90
12/30/11...-11.1....-9.9.....-8.7...-10.5...-12.0..-12.9...-10.9.....-75.0.........-74........-76...........-82
01/06/12.....-6.8....-4.3...-10.0...-20.9...-19.0..-19.9...-14.1.....-94.0.......-102........-95.........-105
01/13/12.....-8.7....-6.9...-10.2...-12.6...-13.3..-14.6...-20.6.....-86.0.........-85........-87...........-97
01/20/12...-30.2..-27.1...-24.2...-22.6...-24.8..-30.9...-32.2...-191.0.......-192......-192.........-183
01/27/12...-25.9..-21.5...-15.4...-17.0...-19.3..-17.2...-15.7...-131.0.......-127......-132.........-110
02/03/12...-13.1..-13.2...-15.3...-12.6.....-7.4....-6.9.....-9.5.....-77.0.........-81........-78...........-69
02/10/12...-15.4..-13.3...-15.7...-15.5...-19.4..-24.8...-22.9...-126.0.......-116......-127.........-112
02/17/12...-25.8..-29.0...-28.5...-25.2...-20.8..-17.6...-19.1...-165.0.......-177......-166.........-141
02/24/12...-13.1..-12.5...-15.7...-14.0...-10.3....-8.2.....-8.2.....-81.0.........-95........-82...........-65
03/02/12...-13.1..-15.5...-14.3...-13.5.....-9.9..-12.1.....-9.0.....-87.4i........-87i........................-65
03/09/12...-10.4i..-10.3i....-9.8i..-11.6i....-5.8i.....0.8i.....0.6i....-46.5i........-47i.............................
Estimated EIA-Weekly based storage (As of 03/06/12).......2378 BCF
...........................................................(As of 03/06/10).......1653 BCF...(725 BCF YOY Surplus)



====Estimate of Operationally Available Working Gas Storage Capacity (in BCF)====
......Model down 03/05/12.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methadology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007.
.......................................(Also called the "2007 Model")

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly,
..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially,
..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented
..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA
..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by
..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments
..............................removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007.
.......................................(Also called the "2007 Model")

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly,
..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially,
..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented
..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA
..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by
..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments
..............................removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.




====Past Weekly Runs vs EIA (Best Model Bracketed)=====
................For Week.........Weekly.Models..Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending______2005___2007__EIA__ EIA.Monthly
09/03/08..(08/29/08)...........{92}.........87.......90..........89.5
09/10/08..(09/05/08).............57........{58}......58..........57.8
09/17/08..(09/12/08)............{65}........57.......67..........66.9
09/24/08..(09/19/08)............{52}........43.......51..........50.9
10/01/08..(09/26/08)............{87}........79.......87..........86.9
10/08/08..(10/03/08).............82.........{88}.....88..........87.4
10/15/08..(10/10/08)............{75}.......{85}.....79..........77.8
10/22/08..(10/17/08)............{72}........76.......70..........68.8
10/29/08..(10/24/08).............31........{39}......46..........44.8
11/05/08..(10/31/08)...............7........{13}......19..........17.8
11/12/08..(11/07/08).............42........{50}......60..........62.5
11/19/08..(11/14/08)...............1..........{8}......16..........18.5
11/25/08..(11/21/08)...........{-65}.......-52......-66........-63.5
12/03/08..(11/28/08)............-73.......{-61}.....-64........-61.5
12/10/08..(12/05/08)............-80.......{-72}.....-67........-68.5
12/17/08..(12/12/08).........{-126}.....-119....-124......-127.1
12/23/08..(12/19/08)..........-154.....{-152}...-147......-150.1
12/30/08..(12/26/08)..........-165.....{-153}...-143......-146.1
01/07/09..(01/02/09)............-69.......{-58}.....-47........-49.3
01/14/09..(01/09/09)..........-125.....{-112}.....-94........-94.2
01/22/09..(01/16/09)..........-191.....{-187}...-176......-176.2
01/29/09..(01/23/09)..........-198.....{-186}...-186......-186.2
02/04/09..(01/30/09)..........-216.....{-206}...-195......-195.2
02/11/09..(02/06/09)..........-187.....{-177}...-159......-158.7
02/18/09..(02/13/09)............-60.......{-52}.....-24........-23.6
02/25/09..(02/20/09)..........-138.....{-120}...-101......-100.6
03/04/09..(02/27/09)..........-133.....{-107}...-102......-101.6
03/11/09..(03/06/09)..........-135.....{-113}...-112......-109.9
03/18/09..(03/13/09)...........{-32}.......-22......-30........-27.6
03/25/09..(03/20/09).............-13.........{5}........3............5.4
04/01/09..(03/27/09).............-20.......{13}........9 (A)....11.4
04/08/09..(04/03/09)...............-1.......{14}......20..........22.2
04/15/09..(04/10/09)...............-1.......{16}......21..........23.1
04/22/09..(04/17/09)..............26.......{46}......46..........48.1
04/29/09..(04/24/09)..............71.......{84}......82..........84.1
05/06/09..(05/01/09)..............84.......{88}......95..........96.6
05/13/09..(05/08/09).............{92}.....101.......95..........92.7
05/20/09..(05/15/09)..............90.......{95}....103........100.7
05/27/09..(05/22/09)...........{113}.....116.....106........104.7
06/03/09..(05/29/09)...........{125}.....126.....124........122.7
06/10/09..(06/05/09)............109.....{107}....106........105.1
06/17/09..(06/12/09)............111.....{113}....114........113.3
06/24/09..(06/19/09).............{94}.......97.......94..........93.3
07/01/09..(06/26/09).............{74}.......78.......70..........69.3
07/08/09..(07/03/09).............{73}.......78.......75..........74.5
07/15/09..(07/10/09).............{86}.......94.......90..........89.8
07/22/09..(07/17/09)..............62.......{68}......66..........65.8
07/29/09..(07/24/09)..............64.......{70}......71..........70.8
08/05/09..(07/31/09)..............63.......{68}......66..........65.8
08/12/09..(08/07/09).............{62}.......70.......63..........64.5
08/19/09..(08/14/09)..............48.......{55}......52..........53.5
08/26/09..(08/21/09)..............40.......{49}......54..........55.5
09/02/09..(08/28/09)..............51.......{63}......65..........66.5
09/09/09..(09/04/09)..............57.......{58}......69..........69.1
09/16/09..(09/11/09)..............58.......{65}......66..........65.0
09/23/09..(09/18/09)..............65.......{69}......67..........66.0
09/30/09..(09/25/09)..............56.......{61}......64..........63.0
10/07/09..(10/02/09)..............57.......{65}......69..........68.7
10/14/09..(10/09/09)..............42.......{51}......58..........59.6
10/21/09..(10/16/09)................5.......{13}......18..........19.6
10/28/09..(10/23/09)..............11..... {27}......25..........26.6
11/04/09..(10/30/09)..............27.......{30}......29..........30.6
11/11/09..(11/06/09)................6.......{21}......25..........26.5
11/18/09..(11/13/09)..............10.......{20}......20..........21.5
11/24/09..(11/20/09).............-16.........{1}........2............3.5
12/02/09..(11/27/09).............-16.........{3}........2............3.5
12/09/09..(12/04/09)............{-62}......-47......-64........-65.5
12/16/09..(12/11/09)...........-214....{-212}...-207......-210.8
12/23/09..(12/18/09)...........-174....{-169}...-166......-169.8
12/30/09..(12/25/09)...........-166....{-144}...-124......-127.8
01/06/10..(01/01/10)...........-171....{-158}...-158......-161.4
01/13/10..(01/08/10)..........{-274}....-277....-266......-267.3
01/20/10..(01/15/10)...........-251....{-250}...-245......-246.3
01/27/10..(01/22/10)...........-112......{-98}.....-86........-87.3
02/03/10..(01/29/10)...........-144....{-128}...-115......-116.3
02/10/10..(02/05/10)..........{-199}....-175....-191......-189.0
02/17/10..(02/12/10)...........-208....{-183}...-190......-186.7
02/24/10..(02/19/10)...........-190....{-169}...-172......-168.7
03/03/10..(02/26/10)...........-148....{-126}...-116......-112.7
03/10/10..(03/05/10)...........-137....{-120}...-111......-109.3
03/17/10..(03/12/10).............-40......{-19}.....-11..........-9.9
03/24/10..(03/19/10).............-25........{-1}......11..........12.1
03/31/10..(03/26/10)...............-4.......{13}......12..........13.1
04/07/10..(04/02/10)..............10........{29}......31..........33.1
04/14/10..(04/09/10)..............59........{84}......87..........91.7
04/21/10..(04/16/10)..............60........{79}......73..........77.7
04/28/10..(04/23/10)..............61........{75}......83..........87.7
05/05/10..(04/30/10)..............68........{82}......83..........87.7
05/12/10..(05/07/10)..............89........{96}......94..........94.8
05/19/10..(05/14/10)..............73........{75}......76..........76.8
05/26/10..(05/21/10)............112........{97}....104........104.8
05/30/10..(05/28/10)..............97........{84}......88..........88.8...(Sunday-Night Pre-Vacation Run)
06/09/10..(05/28/10)............104........{91}......88..........88.8...(Post-Vacation Run, Before EIA actuals applied to model)
06/09/10..(06/04/10)............104......{101}......99..........98.3
06/16/10..(06/11/10)............103........{91}......87..........85.1
06/23/10..(06/18/10)............102........{86}......81..........79.1
06/30/10..(06/25/10)..............77........{61}......60..........58.1
07/07/10..(07/02/10).............n/a........{77}......78..........76.7
07/14/10..(07/09/10).............n/a........{88}......78..........78.0
07/21/10..(07/16/10)..............59........{55}......51..........51.0
07/28/10..(07/23/10)..............27........{30}......28..........28.0
08/04/10..(07/30/10)..............43........{37}......29..........29.0
08/11/10..(08/06/10)..............56........{37}......37..........36.8
08/18/10..(08/13/10)..............43........{22}......27..........26.7
08/25/10..(08/20/10)..............61........{46}......40..........39.7
09/01/10..(08/27/10)..............66........{53}......54..........53.7
09/08/10..(09/03/10)..............64........{57}......58..........58.9
09/15/10..(09/10/10)..............95........{99}....103........105.4
09/22/10..(09/17/10)..............80........{68}......73..........75.4
09/29/10..(09/24/10)..............81........{70}......74..........76.4
10/06/10..(10/01/10).............{78}........74.......85..........87.4
10/13/10..(10/08/10)..............80........{94}......91..........93.5


................For Week...........Wkly....Wkly...Interpolated
__Run____Ending______Model__ EIA__EIA.Monthly
10/20/10..(10/15/10)..............83.......93..........95.5
11/27/10..(10/22/10)..............67.......71..........73.5
11/03/10..(10/29/10)..............55.......67..........69.5
11/10/10..(11/05/10)..............14.......19..........19.2
11/17/10..(11/12/10)................4........-5...........-5.7
11/24/10..(11/19/10)................0........-7...........-7.7
12/01/10..(11/26/10).............-20......-23.........-23.7
12/08/10..(12/03/10).............-85......-89.........-90.1
12/15/10..(12/10/10)...........-161....-164.......-165.7
12/22/10..(12/17/10)...........-188....-184.......-185.7
12/29/10..(12/24/10)...........-142....-136.......-137.7
01/05/11..(12/31/10)...........-128....-135.......-136.7
01/12/11..(01/07/11)...........-146....-138.......-138.2
01/19/11..(01/14/11)...........-236....-243.......-243.2
01/26/11..(01/21/11)...........-169....-164 (B).-164.2
02/02/11..(01/28/11)...........-184....-189.......-189.2
02/09/11..(02/04/11)...........-217....-209.......-210.0
02/16/11..(02/11/11)...........-267....-233.......-234.6
02/23/11..(02/18/11).............-86......-81.........-82.6
03/02/11..(02/25/11).............-83......-85.........-86.6
03/09/11..(03/04/11).............-71......-71.........-73.7
03/16/11..(03/11/11).............-41......-56.........-59.6
03/23/11..(03/18/11)...............-7........-6...........-9.6
03/30/11..(03/25/11)............... 6.......12............8.4
04/06/11..(04/01/11).............-49......-45.........-47.2
04/13/11..(04/08/11)..............24.......28..........34.1
04/20/11..(04/15/11)..............42.......47..........53.1
04/27/11..(04/22/11)..............19.......31..........37.1
05/04/11..(04/29/11)..............55.......72..........78.1
05/11/11..(05/06/11)..............60.......70..........73.4
05/18/11..(05/13/11)..............80.......92..........94.9
05/25/11..(05/20/11)..............89.....105........107.9
06/01/11..(05/27/11)..............79.......83..........85.9
06/08/11..(06/03/11)..............68.......80
06/15/11..(06/10/11)..............64.......69
06/22/11..(06/17/11)..............90.......98
06/29/11..(06/24/11)..............71.......78
07/06/11..(07/01/11)..............84.......95
07/13/11..(07/08/11)..............81.......84
07/20/11..(07/15/11)..............51.......60
07/27/11..(07/22/11)..............30.......43
08/03/11..(07/29/11)..............30.......44
08/10/11..(08/05/11)..............25.......25
08/17/11..(08/12/11)..............50.......50
08/24/11..(08/19/11)..............83.......73
08/31/11..(08/26/11)..............62.......55
09/07/11..(09/02/11)..............69.......64
09/14/11..(09/09/11)..............92.......87
09/21/11..(09/16/11)..............95.......89
09/28/11..(09/23/11)............117.....111
10/05/11..(09/30/11)..............96.......97
10/12/11..(10/07/11)............109.....112
10/19/11..(10/14/11)............104.....103
10/26/11..(10/21/11)..............90.......92
11/02/11..(10/28/11)..............68.......78
11/08/11..(11/04/11)..............30.......37
11/15/11..(11/11/11)..............22.......12
11/22/11..(11/18/11)..............18.........9
11/30/11..(11/25/11)..............12........-1
12/07/11..(12/02/11).............-10......-20
12/14/11..(12/09/11).............-94....-102
12/21/11..(12/16/11).............-95....-100
12/27/11..(12/23/11).............-82......-81..(early run)
01/25/12..(12/23/11).............-85......-81..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(12/30/11).............-74......-76..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/06/12)...........-105......-95..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/13/12).............-86......-87..(post-vacation backrun)
01/25/12..(01/20/12)...........-192....-192
02/01/12..(01/27/12)...........-125....-132
02/08/12..(02/03/12).............-81......-78
02/14/12..(02/10/12)...........-115....-127
02/22/12..(02/17/12)...........-177....-166
02/29/12..(02/24/12).............-96......-82

(A) For purposes of analysis, the 9 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) plus corrections has been re-added to the EIA's originally-reported 0 BCF injection estimate.

(B) For purposes of analysis, the 10 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas) has been removed from the EIA's originally-reported 174 BCF withdrawal estimate.



 
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