Really? The way US equities outperformed the last 10 years? Or how about Japanese stocks over the past 20 years? http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/140012/Dr.-Doom-Foresees-Much-More-Pain-So-Why-Is-Roub
Dr. Doom Foresees Much More Pain: So Why Is Roubini's 401(k) All in Stocks?
Posted Dec 05, 2008 07:00am EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking
Related: ^dji, ^ixic, ^gspc, spy, dia, tlt
Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor, has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his dire predictions about the economy over the last couple of years (most of which have come true).
So it was a shocker when word got out on Wall Street that Roubini was the most bullish guy in the room at a recent dinner he hosted in NYC. There were even rumors Roubini's retirement account was 100% in stocks (since confirmed).
Has Dr. Doom become a raging bull?
Not quite. But with the financial meltdown in full, protracted swing, it seems as if the rest of the world has caught up with him.
"The mainstream is getting closer to my views about a very severe U.S. and global recession," he says. "On the other side, I'm not in the Armageddon camp," forecasting a severe recession through 2009, but not a repeat of the Great Depression.
So why is Roubini's 401(k) 100% in equities? He's not an active investor, and "over 10 to 20 years equities outperform any other asset class," he says in the accompanying video.
Unlike so many others, Roubini's not calling a bottom, for sure: He sees another 20%-30% downside risk for stocks, and advises that investors avoid all "risky assets," including commodities for the foreseeable future. Instead, he recommends Treasuries and, over the medium term, corporate debt.
In case you need further proof that Dr. Doom hasn't lost his edge, Roubini predicts that macroeconomic news and earnings will be much worse than expected in the coming months, as the dollar weakens even further. "The surprise is how bad the the economy [will get]."
At least there's some things you can still count on in an uncertain world.