Nobody is saying VRNG's chances are 1%... None of us know how the answer to the
question you posed of "How much greater than 1%". But most of us can
logically conclude it's closer to 1% than it is 100%.
There is no need to provide any evidence when one is doing theology. Theological truths, unlike ephemeral scientific truths, are always eternal and need no proof since they are always wrong.
I know of no reason whatever to conclude that VRNG's chances of getting an en banc review are capable of any valid statistical analysis. The evidence offered is of the nature that a bulldog has an equal chance of beating a greyhound in a race because both are dogs.
Vringo's case against Google is far from ordinary in many respects. It is hardly just part of the herd. I have not even had a single response to my question why reconsideration was not requested from the panel. To an outsider like myself, it would seem an obvious step considering the carelessness of the judgment.
Best, Terry