The FB bull case was made years ago. 500+ million users as of 2 years ago. Come home, log on, chat, play games, be with you friends... FB became sort of like AOL was 15 years ago eg the place where almost everyone could be found online at the same time.

But by then FB, the site that many credit for revolutions, had already become the ultimate insider company. Like GOOG and their "do no evil" mantra what they are has become the opposite of what they wanted to be.

Specifically, while FB was a site for the people, FB went around and raised billions in insider money. If you follow the book/movie you see it as a couple of guys who started up this really cool website. They then went to California and raised $500,000 in VC money from the smartest of the VC money. Then the guy who put up $500,000 got his "frenemies" to put up millions more - hey they too got in real early but they had to pay 20 times more.

These guys then went around the world and raised more and more money from all the ultimate insiders you can think of, from uber-rich pop stars to billionaire Russian oligarchs to people who eat lunch with Central Bankers. By Jan 2012 FB was 40% owned by people with private jets and who have "your yacht is bigger than my yacht" complexes.

A website of and by the people suddenly became the ultimate insiders deal.

All these insiders, not satisfied to make tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, literally conspired on how they could profit to the max from the people that made FB so popular even at the expense of FB itself. They increased the size and price of the deal several times along the way even though they knew this was evidence of a problem. When you go around a few days before the IPO and let people know there are more shares for sale that should be a sign that the demand isn't there - because a really good IPO will oversubscribe well in advance leaving no shares left for sale days before the open. And when you raise the price a few times knowing that demand isn't there, well, this is merely a sign of your own greed. The insiders' greed.

And it became a cycle. When they raised the IPO price that caused more insiders to put more for sale and when they put more for sale that means less demand for shares on the opening day. When the insiders are saying "instead of 3 million shares maybe I will sell 23 million shares" you know that they are thinking they should take the money and run. So many insiders dramatically increased their selling stake in the last weeks before the IPO that it created a lot more overhang for us regular guys to to absorb. And when the insiders increase their selling quantity at the higher price that is a clear signal to us that maybe we shouldn't buy it.

So bottom line is that all these "ultimate insiders" tried to exploit the common investors, traders and FB users but had no shame and no discipline, making their exploitations totally transparent. They really think very little of the common person/investor trader.

I have said on other boards, over the last several years the common investor has been grabbed by the ankles, turn heels over head, had our pockets emptied, been slapped around and when complain about it been told by regulators and politicians to shut up and take it. So when these insiders come around expecting us to fall for a transparent scheme to absorb all their excess shares at absurdly high prices/valuations that will make each of them another obscene pile of money while we become bagholders of the shares they are unloading... well... F them. Let FB fall to $10.