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Re: The company's done as far as the long term holders are concerned...Toasted My view is that the shares are an option on the oil price. Hence whether you hold or sell should be influenced by your view on long term marginal cost. ie what is the right long term oil price that removes enough high cost production from world supply, therebye balancing supply demand. The latest Barclays sector note reckons $90 but that strikes me as too high. I'm assuming $75, If you think $60, Iona not for you. If you agree with Barclays, Iona a raging buy! The risks are restructuring falling through and single asset development risk. Re restructuring, it appeared to me that Tom was confident the farm in partner still on board. I would be very surprised if farm in partner not talking to Atlantic. So I'm reasonably relaxed that this deal will complete. It may extend beyond September but Bondholders don't benefit if it does. Ie shareholders stick at 13%. Re development risk, this should be relatively simple project but as we all know to our cost, shit happens. However I would expect some deal/diversification well before we get too far down the Orlando development road. Iona equity is attractive if you are positive on oil price but the story now is about completing the restructuring, therebye cleaning up Iona for the next deal. My view is that Iona will be a very different beast in 12 months. Hopefully a much bigger beast and not canine. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
15440 | Re: The company's done as far as the long term holders are concerned...O&R&O | Public_Heel | 2 | 8/30/2015 6:43:11 AM |
15445 | Re: The company's done as far as the long term holders are concerned... | toasted2 | 6 | 8/31/2015 1:15:05 AM |