Nawar has done extremely well for himself with his amateur analysis. So have I for that matter. More than once big name funds have handed me stocks trading at a 1 P/E only to decide a couple of years later they would like to buy them back for 10 times the price. Getting excited about such opportunities I think is part of being a successful investor. At the extreme of confidence if one invests 100% in something with such potential then the portfolio can increase by orders of magnitude. Of course confidence is never 100%, but if you diversify into holdings which you are less sure about or do not have such potential maybe you only end up doubling your portfolio.

 

Were his articles too optimistic? Well they turned out to be wrong, at least in the short term. But there were too many articles and he strayed too far off the main points and made too many excuses when results headed the wrong way. From the evidence it does appear that he followed his own advice and lost money. A real pumper would have sold right after the pump. It does look bad of course that he continued writing articles right up to the point where he switched most of his holdings to EQU. By that point his articles were being ignored anyway due to the number he wrote and the poor results.