I think we can all agree that Griffin's $23 target is meaningless. Their change from
Nov 2016 when they were predicting various approvals to
Feb 2017 using a silly and meaningless model (Phase 1 = 1 point; Phase 2 = 2; Phase 3 = 3) and then extrapolating value based on Kite's pipeline where each point is worth $326 in value is dumb. So what is Griffin's response to the breast trial stoppage?
...
"We’re maintaining our price target despite the modification to the R&D pipeline. As discussed in our report dated February 6th, we set our price objective through a comparator analysis that yielded an adjusted Phase 1 trial valuation of $326 million. With the Phase 2 breast cancer study suspended, we believe it is reasonable to think that one or two of the clinical studies scheduled to commence in this year’s first half will advance and thus serve as a replacement(s). As shown within this report, Ziopharm will initiate two trials of its IL-12 gene therapy, one involving a combination regimen that includes a checkpoint inhibitor and the other that will test the therapy for pediatric brain tumors. The other two studies in the queue will test CD33CAR T cells and allogeneic NK cells for acute myeloid leukemia. In addition, the Company may have two more clinical trials under way by early next year through its collaboration with Merck KGaA."
Sure, because when your model reduces the value by $652 million, no change is necessary.
Everybody here should have known for the last 6 months that breast IL-12 wasn't going forward. The fact that the stock moved so quickly makes me more convinced of the potential for upside if and when trials are proven. I agree with a lot of Rob is saying. The next gen stuff is very interesting and well worth hanging around for. Not sure why he is posting IL-12 when all the underlying stuff is IL-15.
Haven't seen it posted yet, but a few things...
- They are paying $2.5 million per year for 3 years for their CRADA per the 10k.