Monday morning quarterbacking
In retrospect, Elan should had sold its remaining stake in bapi for actual consideration plus a 10% to 15% royalty and purchased ALKS. That would have put Elan in a much less risky position today. Given the growth in Tysabri and the improved operational results ALKS management could have delivered, a pps of $25 would have been a valid target within two years, with or without the success of bapi. Contrast that with our current position. If the long shot in bapi goes the way of 99.99999999999% of all lottery tickets, non-J&J Elan will be reduced to just 40% of Tysabri, a product manufactured and marketed by Biogen. What purpose will the continuing existence of Elan then serve? It's game over due entirely to a series of strategic blunders.