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Re: Trendline fitted to data - if it holds should have 300 new scripts reported for week 9, almost 500 week 13 Here is some additional thoughts on the graph by the person who posted it on another site http://mnkd.proboards.com/post/21316 A poster commenting on the graph Nice graph. It looks pretty linear with 30 script/week growth. However, assuming linear growth, by the end of year it would be some 1500 scripts/week, that only translate to ~ 20M revenue total revenue, and MNKD only gets 1/3 of that. Am I missing something here? The graph creator's response. Well,
the data is very early so projecting forward is a sketchy exercise.
The linear fit right now is reasonably close, but it does appear that a
non-linear fit (acceleration in the series) is a bit better at present.
That would be true for the Exhubera numbers at this point in the series
as well, but then it failed that pattern at about 3 months in and a
linear fit with higher slope ends up being considerably better. What might be surprising here is that while Afrezza is outselling Exhubera at the moment, it is actually under-performing (by a fair amount) on the rate of growth. That makes no sense given what we hear on the street. So, I don't think either (linear or non-linear) trendline for Afrezza that we would draw at the moment is going to have been the right one when we look back a few weeks from now. I am hoping that we see additional acceleration in the next few weeks, but that factor will probably decay as the year progresses. On the revenue question - MNKD is entitled to 1/3 of the revenue, but not until shared costs are factored in. It would be a miracle if revenue from the profit share were positive this year. astrojny's NOTE: MANNKIND has stated it does not expect to report a profit in 2015 and has stated it may not report a profit until 2017 |
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