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Re: Public testimony at AdCom // dose span? >> ...I am convinced the FDA won't be able to deny Afrezza [1]. I am also convinced that Afrezza will be a huge success [2] and reach blockbuster sales within a years time [3]. I agree on your #1 and 2 points and vehemently disagree on the third. Blockbuster, even using forward 12-month run-rate instead of actual past 12-month sales, is $1B. Assuming some accelerating sales for 12-month forward, would probably have to be reach $60-65M / mo by the 12th month to have reasonable chances of blockbuster status. I just see that as a very tough row to hoe. Going to several diabetics' websites has opened my eyes a little bit - I an deathly afraid of needles and [edited] It also seems to take a year for docs to really buy into something, except for the early innovators. And then the problem is also one of earnings and sharecount, once we have a product for sale. A partner means we probably make 40-50% of each unit between manufacturing and royalty? So a year-out $1B may only be $450M tops for us... and with 375Mish shares out that is less than $2 revenue per share. 5-7 seems to be a reasonable sales multiple, so AFTER showing a billion in future sales, $14 is a stretch. (Of course we'd have a higher premium for growth and pipeline but typically that'd get less than $2-3 extra per share in a SOTP analysis. Long story short, I will hold my core but expect to trade around it until at least 3Q15 before really adding in strength. If you are with me this far, question: how long will "a" prescription be typically good for? IOW, will the patient get a years' worth of refills? 6 months? 3 months? TIA, all my opinion. Best, Trond |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
6575 | Re: Public testimony at AdCom // dose span? | mrmarkaallen | 1 | 4/25/2014 7:23:16 AM |