The share prices of banks plunge worldwide on some historic lows.That could be a bad omen. Threatens a new financial crisis, which will be even more catastrophic than 2008/2009? - Hedge fund managers: Some banks may drop to zero.
From Uli Pfauntsch
In the discussion about the refugee crisis and the oil price, has been scarcely noticed that European bank stocks over went into free fall and have fallen to multi-year lows. Even the shares of Deutsche Bank has recently crashed below the low of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009. At Commerzbank it does not look much better. Should we now expect the worst?
Former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs man, Raoul Pal, said Tuesday on CNBC: "So many of these bank stocks fall so hard. I believe that people do not even notice what is going on, and that makes me really worry ".
In the interview, the founder of Global Macro Investor says that one or more banks could fall to zero are on the list of the distressed banks.:
- German Bank
- UniCredit SpA
- Banca Carige SpA
- Banco Santander
- Bankia SA
- Banca Monte dei Paschi
- Royal Bank of Scotland
- Barclays Capital
Price development German Bank: Deeper than the 2009 financial crisis
"Draghi" worst nightmare of the banks!
In an interview with CNBC, Raoul Pal means the ECB President Drahgi as "worst nightmare" for banks. There are mainly the negative interest rates, which banks could not handle, which also have long seen among Japanese banks. The former employee of Goldman Sachs sees the banking sector from all sides under attack: The Crash of raw materials, along with a global trade that has slumped to the second lowest level since 1958, the falling yield curves, bad loans and losses in the private banking business with the major customers.
Raoul Pal is convinced that it failed European banks to clean up their balance sheets after the financial crisis. The US banks stood balance sheet a little better there, but not really good. The contagion from Europe already achieved Citigroup and Bank of America, whose shares are also in free fall.
Although the bank shares are in free fall, advises hedge fund managers from short positions in bank stocks is not from. The problems in the banking sector have the potential, the risks associated with China and the oil price to surpass, so Pal.
Europe's banks under stress - my assessment!
The stress in the banking sector comes from different directions. In Greece, the market value of the four major banks between summer 2014 and November 2015 had decreased by an average (!) 97%. Since the beginning of the year but the Bank Index has lost in Athens again 30%. Here institutional investors had pumped 5.3 billion euros in capital in these banks in November. Rapid could burn money hardly anywhere.
In Italy, four regional banks were hardly noticed by the public, settled. Here Shareholders and owners of subordinated bonds had bleed. With great difficulty succeeded in Rome to spare creditors of senior bonds. However, at a high price with heavy losses for creditors.
The national resolution funds had to step in, which means but not sufficient to rescue these four tiny Geldhäuser itself. Three larger institutions had to pay more to rest.
These individual solutions a'la Rome, however, no longer be possible in future, since January has also been introduced in Italy, the new, strict EU resolution regime. We are talking about bad loans more than 200 billion euros, the Italian banks have in the books. With a larger skew Italy takes the senior bond investors, almost all sitting in their own country and are 30% private creditors may ask the cashier. This Italian example shows that the European debt crisis was currently only pushed into the background because of the asylum crisis, but at least next is as threatening for Europe, as the rampant immigration into the welfare systems.
The two major British banks, Barclays Capital and RBS should be again received considerable credit risk in China, but are simultaneously cross-linked with the European banking sector.
www.investman.de
|