The scenario you pictured is as good as anyone's at this point, however I suspect Putin is too smart to play ball with the likes of Erdogan the oligarch. Remember he specifically outed the major ISIS supporters at the G20 and then went full bore against the 'Erdogan oil empire'.
Putin is a proud Russian and his KGB background has led him to say several times "we know everything".
Well surely if they know everything, they know of a potential Turkish political leader that would be a less corrupt and more amenable partner for Russia...just sayin ....and BTW Putin has a history of contempt for oligarch power.
IMO, Russia will play the Kurds and whatever else they can against Erdogan to effect a regime change in Turkey that will help them solve the ISIS problem as well as cooperate with the Southstream pipeline thru Turkey to Europe.......and then they will all live happily thereafter.... lol
BWTFDIK....Get some popcorn and watch the show and enjoy Thanksgiving