Tag has a couple of problems. Production guidance and timelines that were on the presentations were not met. Part of the reason seems to be environmental protests that have delayed the East Coast Basin and keep them from flaring in the Taranaki Basin so that they have a lot of oil that they can't produce until they get a gas treatment plant working. But I think they expected to flare for a bit and therefore predicted more production. They should have been able to keep up with well declines for a while by connecting new wells but can't.
Based on various protests, I think the speed that they are getting infrastructure completed has been slowed.
Long term, in the Taranaki Basin, Tag's chances still boil down to things like how much oil can they produce from each well and how many wells they can drill. Each well that they drill is relatively inexpensive and is making a lot of money per well. They already have a lot of equipment in the Taranaki Basin to keep the oil hot and keep the oil flowing in the well - wax treatment. That is all paid for. Long term in the East Coast Basin it boils down to whether they find conventional oil or not. Conventional oil is the best case. If they find unconventional oil, this also works for them but slower. It would take a few years to ramp-up production. But on the other hand, I think if there is unconventional shale that is relatively easy to produce, they get purchased probably by Apache for a good premium.
For now, projects at Tag oil seem to be on the back burner while the lawyers fight the individual who keeps protesting everything Tag Oil does on the Taranaki Basin and on the East Coast, until they convince everyone that drilling is not so bad. I understand Apache's view. I don't think they are going to want to spend a lot of money in the basin until they are reasonably sure that they will be able to proceed with developing oil that they find. Otherwise, why spend $100 million drilling exploration wells and gathering seismic data.
I believe that New Zealand will eventually decide to drill. They can either do that or most likely become a second or third world country over the next 20 years.