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POE ValueThings have been pretty boring for POE lately waiting on wells to be drilled and oil prices to get better. To pass the time, I thought I'd put out my estimate of asset value here. Cash at Q2 - $41 million Tax Payment Received Post Q2 - $6 million Total Cash currently - $47 million Thailand - $30 million (cash flow in Q2 was $2.4 million or ~$10 million annualized. Conservative estimate of 3x multiple at current oil prices) Batu Gajah - $0 if they lose it. If they're able to keep it, its very difficult to value this asset. My rough guess (highly conservative) is ~$30 million (Akeh-1 tested at ~1,400 boe/d, assuming a $30,000 production multiple on that well alone of which we own 77%). Its probably worth a lot more than that as they will have a number of drilling locations. East Jabung - Talisman paid us US$13 million for their 50% stake in 2014 (US$8 million cash plus US$5 million carry). So our 50% should be worth that US$13 million plus the US$5 million carried capital from Talisman/Repsol or US$18 million (about Canadian $24 million). Oil prices are down since then but estimate of the resource is up. I think $25 million is a good estimate today. Sawn Lake - The High Case NPV estimate in 2014 was $445 million (the first well exceeded the production in the high case). That was with a lot higher oil prices. If we cut off 75% of the NPV value for lower oil prices, its worth about $115 million or about $80 million based on our 72% ownership of Pandora. So we have: Cash - $47 Thailand - $30 Batu Gajah - $30 East Jabung - $25 Sawn Lake - $80 Total - $212 million. That's about $3.85 a share. I would consider this estimate conservative and would be much higher at higher oil prices. Lots of under-appreciate value here folks! Thoughts / other views? |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
1268 | Re: POE Value | Public_Heel | 2 | 8/25/2016 10:41:25 PM |