First of all I was answering having 2 extra rigs and I am pretty sure about the tax timing but I will confirm that. I could alway be wrong.
I would say that one extra rig starting toward the end of the year is not a bad idea at all. Personally I would be in favor of it for at least establishing more reserves with exploration wells.
However, considering the situation with the partners, getting it earlier is just not going to happen IMO.
Now, for the new wells timing before the assumed end 2013 tax holiday.
2 wells and 2 horizontal wells in 18 months is not impossible and certainly not laughable. I did not say it was in 1 year BTW.
UMU9 was very difficult as it was a new pad on a brand new formation. A lot of knowledge for the next well was acquired. The second and third well should be a lot faster. Call it 4-5 months per well. Horizontal is a re-entry of UMU-5 so it should go much faster.
I am assuming 4K BOPD for umu-10 and 11 but it could be much higher with a larger choke but I do not know for sure.
Having a pipeline operational.
I am looking at Q4 2013. The 10 to 12 months from now in Nigerian time really means the end of 2013 start of Q4 at best.
If the tax holiday is the end of 2014 it is a different story but not by as much as you may think..
So to recap and being very conservative using 5 months per well for 2 wells and only one horizontal:
19K now available
UMU-10 4K on October 1st 2012
UMU-11 4K on March 1st 2013.
One horizontal 9k on July 1st 2013
That's 36K BOPD available July 1st 2013 for and export capability of 41K BOPD available at best October 1st 2013.
So even if the tax holiday is the end of 2014 you got plenty of time to reach the 41K from that July first date.
You do realize that at 41K we will make a ton of money and the share price will not be what it is now. We are arguing about being rich or just a little bit richer.