Re: The lost art of investing...........knowing what is likely behind the curtain-----Release
Valuation of individual stocks may be immaterial at this point. Value is getting overwhelmed by credit concerns, (downward) price momentum is the only thing working. People are trying to protect their capital and careers here.
I read a few predicting the end of the cyclical bull market within a secular bear market and a return to March 2009 lows (end of the world scenario).
I kept my CEN.TO as I sold many others but my CEN is hedged by shorts in other things. I don't mind the buyback.
China PMI disappointed last night but it is over 50 and that survey was taken before the latest stimulating policy, so says little. Shanghai market was actually up. European PMI numbers were terrible but market knew that.
US numbers are getting softer; home sales were revised down, GDP was revised down. Today's job numbers could do some damage if come below (already ratcheted down) expectations but won't do much if come out stronger. But bad news anywhere is making USD stronger and commodities weaker.
DELL, CSCO, NTAP, INFY, CTSH said market uncertainty is affecting enterprise orders.
Europe is in toilet; Spain said about $100b left the country in the last 3 months. Only a forceful action by central bankers can break the downward momentum in stocks, if not the economies which need long-term structural reforms.
I think it is better to get very small, if not totally out of this market, and wait for some pain. Managing the downside and not getting into a big hole is the key here. It may be too late to get short and open up for a policy response.
I got small in August 2008 but regretted not getting totally out until October and took a loss. But I came back during March 6-9 and had a blockbuster 2009, recovering 2008 losses many times over. I got very small in May 2010 but did well from July to year end. I became small after the Tsunami in 2011 but did ok despite all the gyrations; the spike in October and the year end run helped.