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Msg  15396 of 21580  at  5/8/2012 12:24:13 PM  by

smittyfrmpa


Oil price, macro

In 2011, WTI hit a short term bottom on May 7,, then rebounded somewhat, trading in a fairly tight range over the summer, then bottoming again in Sept. Some are speculating we could see sub $80 Brent this time, but, I do remember reading that the Saudies must have a $90 minimum to sustain payments to their citizens (and prevent revolt)at present levels. Western governments have greatly increased paper money circulation in the last year, while running up ever larger debts, that can only be repaid through future inflation (France, Greece, US, etc.). It's hard to imagine the world's main producer, SA, not cutting back, rather quickly, should sub $90 Brent appear, let alone sub $80, especially in view of steadily eroding paper currencies. That said, sustained Brent pricing in the $90 range, and WTI in the $85 range, would be a defacto tax cut for Europe and North America, doubtless helping to sustain job creation (or prevent further job destruction), and oil demand. What amazes is that Coastal is treated as if Greece were the main buyer of their oil, as opposed to being situated in the middle of the world's fastest growing economic region.


 
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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
15397 Re: Oil price, macro/ margin changes us2u001 5 5/8/2012 12:29:40 PM
15400 Re: Oil price, macro -- Saudi fiscal situation is largely irrelevant -- The Red 5/8/2012 2:23:53 PM


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