Re: BXE top pick
Here are some comments on BXE from the Pescod report. The whole O&G sector has been clobbered and all I've done so far is cut my hands, carching falling knives. There have been signs of bottoming and then another crash. I'm sitting tight until I see something solid, as far as a turn around in the market.
BELLATRIX EXPLORATION (T-BXE) $2.69 -0.01
Mason Granger is a fund manager with Sentry Investments
and he was featured on BNN yesterday. One of his three top
picks was Bellatrix Exploration. Surprise, surprise. There are
lots of folks in the business that love and admire the work
that Ray Smith and his team at Bellatrix are doing.
So what. In this world where oil prices have been pummeled
and worries are that Europe is going into a recession
of some scale. All oil stocks have been pummeled. Just take
one look at the chart of Bellatrix.
On BNN Granger suggested that they had been expecting
oil to fall off this year because of Europe and also suggested
that the Saudi’s have had an influence. But now that Brent is
down to where it is close to a break-even point for the
Saudi’s, he suggests we are in a bottoming process or at
least near a bottom.
They are trying to pick stocks these days that have a
strong balance sheet and a low-cost structure just in case the
bad times persist. But as far as Bellatrix, there were more
than a few analysts reports out in the last couple of days on
the stock and once again, all are positive.
Brian Kristjansen at Canaccord writes a feature piece,
“Doing More With Less.” He writes, “Bellatrix announced this
morning (June 21) that it will be reducing capital spending in
2012 to a range of $140 to $150 million, from the prior $180
million to be more in line with cash flow. Production estimates
(16,500 to 17,000 BOE/d) and exit rates (19,000 to
19,500 BOE/d) are unchanged, however, given continued Cardium
and Notikewin well outperformance.
The company restarted drilling yesterday, with its first rig
deployed at Willesden Green targeting the Cardium, and expects
to deploy its second rig at Ferrier in the coming days as
weather permits. The capital program will be spent drilling 15
(13.6 net) Cardium wells and 2 (1.5 net) Notikewin wells. We
would note the previously planned Duvernay vertical is not
included, which we view positively as a better return is likely
to be had from a Cardium or Notikewin well. The IP30 rate on
its first Duvernay well was 5.6 Mmcf/d. The well is believed to
only be producing from the heel and will be cleaned out with
a coil tubing rig when weather permits. Our focus and positive
view of the company remain on the consistent and more
economic Cardium and Notikewin inventory.
Impact: Positive. Spending less to achieve the same results
is especially positive in volatile times when capital preservation
We have tempered our Q3/12 outlook as two rigs rather then three are being deployed, reducing our 2012 average
(we were previously above guidance) to 17,000 BOE/d from 17,250 BOE/d. The spending reduction brings debt to cash
flow to 1.1x/0.8x in 2012/2013 (from 1.4x/0.9x). With exit guidance intact, our 2013 estimates remain unchanged.
Recommendation: Bellatrix remains our Intermediate Focus List pick; we are reiterating our BUY recommendation
and increasing our target price to C$9.00 (from C$8.75). Our target remains based on a 5.5x 2013E EV/DACF multiple
supplemented by $0.08 of risked Cardium upside. We expect to review our risked upside estimates in the near term,
given more production history from the company’s Ferrier block.”
The Duvernay well might have been little more than an expensive science project, more than a real well, and with
what’s going on in the world it is probably time to make sure one’s budgets are realistic.
Kevin Shaw of Casimir Capital also has a $9.00 target and one does wonder at some of these targets here in the
real world with what’s been going on, we still hope Josef Schachter who had predicted much of this year right
(although some of his stocks picks have suffered as well) is correct in that once we get past an ugly summer and early
fall, oil and much of the world seems to recover.
Again, Schachter is predicting $100 on oil some time next winter.