Re: GSK vaccine - Tekmira out? Back to you Linda
It is hard to know the impact gooz and that is unnerving. GSK is big with resources and moving things very quickly. That steals limelight. But we know very little of the animal efficacy details of this product, bearing in mind that they are also modifying it into 2 different human versions for human testing. In doing so you would have to be able to prove that your doses in humans were sufficient for the way this virus (not the flu variants we get every year) works in humans. I do think barriers have been significantly reduced recently but these will still be real issues going forward.
Despite the media etc at present GSK to TKMR is like the WHO-MSF. Their job is to stop the spread in the uninfected. If the vaccine is tolerated, and the vaccine uptake high and it is highly effective then it could have an impact.
If the logistics are in place it is easy to test a treatment in Africa. It is less easy to prove the efficacy of a vaccine at the same time as better measures e.g. Isolation, non contact etc are in place. You need very large numbers because of course you cannot intentionally expose. You cannot use in contacts because likely the vaccine will need more time than the incubation period to work (although they may well try). So you have to give it to other people and then hope to show it reduces the infection rate. Even if you give it to contacts the majority of these do not end up with the disease so how do you know you had effect. The more people with no disease you give the drug to the more you have to worry about reactions to the drug.
In the longer term there will always be a need for a treatment regimen whether it is bioterrorism or natural. The risk of bioterrorism has increased multifold because of the world crises and the reservoir of material in West Africa. However, it is likley that only the US would be proactive enough to stock up for bioterrorism compared to natural causes. If a vaccine was proven very highly effective that might reduce the volume required for stockpiling for bioterror/natural outbreaks but since the reluctance of people to have vaccines for diseases they think are rare is increasing one has to wonder how well in the west people would take up such a vaccine absent of a local outbreak.
Hopefully there is some action from TKMR but GSK is very big and a notable competitor in the field. I think that they are much more a direct threat to Profectus and IMV who to date I think have produced more public NHP vaccine data.
Ego