In 2007, someone else from NASA - Jay Zwally said something similar in 2007 about the arctic. “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.” Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado backed him up and claimed, "The Arctic is screaming". “Hansen also backed them up saying we had, "Passed a tipping point and if we make some quick changes and turn in direction, then we might be able to reverse this."
What actually is happening in 2012 is that the Arctic ice is back to about average levels it has been since satellite measurement began. The alarmists say, well that ice is not very thick. But what they don't understand is the way things work in the arctic. The AO or Arctic Oscillation and NAO are decadal and multi-decadal changes that impact arctic ice over decades. What happens is that in some years, currents and wind are more likely to move ice out of the arctic and arctic ice can decline. The AO and NAO stay in fairly persistent cycles for decades at a time. So, when the oscillations tend to move ice out of the arctic, the ice levels gradually decrease and thickness of ice decreases. In the opposite cycle, obviously the opposite happens.
In 2007, after Mark Serreze and James Hansen made their predictions, everyone who is an AGW Skeptic and has a scientific background laughed about what they said and explained what was actually happening. I wrote that by 2012/2015, the arctic had a good chance of starting to recover. But how can that be some might wonder? Jay Zwally is a scientist at NASA he must have a science background and should be an expert. How can people who have different areas of expertise comment on Jay Zwally's area and know he is wrong to the point of finding his viewpoint laughable? The reason is James Hansen. He has had a lot to do with who is hired and he prefers people who are left wing environmentalists over those who have scientific ability. It is easily possible to hire people who have doctorates in some area but have no actual scientific ability, common sense or creativity. Additionally, Jay Zwally probably knows from James Hansen's example that there is good money and benefits in making radical unscientific claims.
