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ClimatEnerGeopolitics
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Re: New Study: Two Thousand Years of Northern European Summer Temperatures Show a Downward Trend>And so we continue to collect ever more real-world evidence for the fact, that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or >unprecedented about the Earth’s current level of warmth. Again, you can't be serious. Even if the summers in Europe are cooler, it says nothing about global warming. The global average temperature increased throughout that same period. Meanwhile, you are still avoiding this science, which ends forever your claim that there has been no warming since q1998. You have to address the proof in this article, or you admit you have been wrong all along: In summary: that the warming since 1998 “is not significant” is completely irrelevant. This warming is real (in all global surface temperature data sets), and it is factually wrong to claim there has been no warming since 1998. There has been further warming despite the extreme cherry pick of 1998. What is relevant, in contrast, is that the warming since 1998 is not significantly less than the long-term warming. So while there has been a slowdown, this slowdown is not significant in the sense that it is not outside of what you expect from time to time due to year-to-year natural variability, which is always present in this time series. Given the warm temperature of 2014, we already see the meme emerge in the media that “the warming pause is over”. That is doubly wrong – there never was a significant pause to start with, and of course a single year couldn’t tell us whether there has been a change in trend. Just look at Figure 1 or Figure 4 – since the 1970s we simply are in an ongoing global warming trend which is superimposed by short-term natural variability. Weblink: Statistician Tamino shows that in none of the global temperature data sets (neither for the surface nor the satellite MSU data) has there recently been as statistically significant slowdown in warming trend. In other words: the variation seen in short-term trends is all within what one expects due to short-term natural variability. Discussing short-term trends is simply discussing the short-term “noise” in the climate system, and teaches us nothing about the “signal” of global warming. - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/recent-global-warming-trends-significant-or-paused-or-what/#sthash.vytoxCcp.dpuf |
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