"There is a 12 percent chance of a super solar
storm the size of the Carrington event hitting Earth in the next 10
years, according to physicist Pete Riley. ... His research was based on an analysis of solar storm records going back 50 years."
In 2012, the sun was getting towards maximum activity in solar cycle 24. The same thing was true in 1859 when the Carrington Event occurred. But the Carrington event occurred during a period of normal solar activity. Solar cycle 24 is a very small cycle and is the first cycle when the sun is less active. Solar cycle 25 will be smaller.
The 1859 Carrington event occurred during solar cycle 10 - which as I mentioned was during a period of normal solar activity and very rapid global warming.
Given that the research was based on solar records that went back 50 years (the prior 50 years had high solar activity), I don't know how relevant that is to periods of low solar activity. That 12% number does not appear to be a robust result.