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An oil well driller post this morning.This is a poster for several years about the oil industry. I don't own any oil stucks at this time, but seeing that he is buying futures for 2017 makes you think. Voice my opinion this morning With my checkbook on long side for a ST trade as always. I have so many things and ideas running thru my peabrain skull right now based on having drilled over a 1000 vertical shale wells in the past 40 years and the exepriences that has come from actually putting money in the ground not only on paper bets in the WS casino. I have purchased the following for the record Bought DNR sub 7 common & calls for 2017 in various strikes Bought BBG @ 8.5 common Bought RIG calls several ITM strikes for 2017 Not trying to call bottoms since no one knows the exact number but bottom line is that SHALE is NOT a RESERVOIR Rock and declines are a minimum of 70 % first year ( reported number getting closer to actuals IMO)and the biggest fact not being exposed yet is that the more shale wells completed in a closed area the lower the IP's and respective pressures become more prevalent. IMHO the loss of the industry building fundamental of PAYOUT being replaced with new lingos and letters such as EUR's ( which don't pay the bills due monthly if you drilled on debt) has and will continue to represent the greatest destruction of capital in the domestic energy industry. As soon as you fall behind the treadmill in the shale you have committed all future dollars to having to be LUCKY rather than GOOD since it takes bigger and bigger wells to get ahead of the CF curve again. This means unless you get lucky you go broke if you owe on the wells. Too many other ideas and too little time as we are now getting ready to complete a well that a larger player has walked away from lately with the old fashioned idea of getting out money back in less than a year in a conventional oil and gas reservior formation. Once an oilman always an oilman that will never borrow to drill. TRADE WELL and PROSPER...TODD1956 |
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