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Msg  17143 of 19719  at  1/31/2012 9:37:18 AM  by

Radioguy


 In response to msg 17142 by  Sara7
ignore topicview thread,  thread start

Re: RDG

S7,

No slight felt - yes, the media suck at reporting things.  That's why I do things from a Saskatchewan perspective in my radio show, public speaking, and consulting work.  Also, I try to report things somewhat unbiased (but hey - the work is called "Prosperity Saskatchewan" not unbiased news on Saskatchewan's mining sector, and my sponsors are in the business) after looking at was has actually happened, vs. what the first headline read, then copying it.  The radio show is positive, but the public speaking and consulting work is balanced.

For example, see my post at http://prosperitysaskatchewan.wordpress.com/2012/01/26/potashcorp-year-end-results-potash-production-sales-and-prices-up/

While the global media, and worse yet, those in Saskatchewan, were reporting on how potash sales were done for the last quarter and they missed the targets set be analysts, bad news, etc - they all missed the big picture on the 'potash' portion which is a forecasted record year for 2012 and that 2011 results crushed 2010.  My web/blog posting portrays the situation.  People in Saskatchewan want to know what will happen to their home values, not PotashCorp's stock price (well, some want to know about the stock price and it is important).

Oh, and before we go any further, I don't have any news that is not public, but I do have quick access to anybody I want in the sector.  Also, those people can't say more than is already in the press releases, but they sure love to talk about other companies' news - so I get outside perspective from actual professionals running companies or doing the actual studies or . . . . 

So, we soldier on.

I hope the revised EIS is filed soon, so we can get a gov't 'OK, let's show it to the public now' in 45 days, and then get a final price tag on the FALC project which includes the water treatment issues.  And with this final cost, perhaps a financier will surface.  After all, who's going to finance a home if you don't know if it will fall off the cliff it's built beside.

I'm glad to see BHP may stay in diamonds, as they would be a good fit or at least keep another possible suitor honest.  The ones I hear to finance would be in order; Rio, Anglo, Petra and/or Gem, or the Gov't of India (on India, look at the Bain diamond report for how much they depend on cutting/polishing as an industry).  Alrosa would have a problem buying into a Canadian company.  BHP, if they stay in diamonds, would be tied with Rio for 1st.  And then there is always a bank or two. 

From what I hear from other companies, the 19% + IRR in the better case feasibility scenario is a good number for investing - and there is a lot of blue sky in diamonds uncovered but their value not counted, as well as once the initial infrastructure is paid-for there are a lot of other kimberlites to mine, and the costs are stable and not likely to grow due to grid power, no camp to maintain, permanent roads, cell coverage, etc.  But, do you put your billions into diamonds or for example potash?  Or, do you believe the study -  how do you get 40,000 ton per day through a 1mm screen?  The diamond sector has a wonderful future with a massive supply/demand window and growing prices, but do you want to be in the sector with it's unique features, diversify, or just stay with basic copper, etc.?  Or, do you believe the market forecasts? 

Hope this helps.

RDG

 

 



 
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17144 Re: RDG crazy8 2/1/2012 1:44:44 AM


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