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CANADIAN Politics And Investing ( F. TOITS)
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Re: Jim Prentice becomes the Kim Campbell of Alberta politics. Is Harper next?Thanks for this little tidbit, Brent. The comparison of Prentice to Kim Campbell is interesting and hadn’t occurred to me. However, with respect, to suggest the NDP victory yesterday has any meaningful significance for the Federal Tories is pretty much wishful thinking. Yes, it’s a negative for the morale of those Tories and a booster for the rest of us, and that’s worth something. I really hate to rain on anyone’s parade, but far from exposing any weakness in Harper’s position the technicals actually illustrate his strengths.
With 40.6% of the popular vote the NDP have won 53 or 54 ridings (currently there’s a tie in a Calgary riding between the NDP and the PCs). If we combine the Wildrose and PC results, they received 52% of the popular vote and won a total of 31 or 32 seats (currently there’s a tie in a Calgary riding between the NDP and the PCs). Clearly there’s a huge advantage under our system when your opposition is divided between 2 opponents, and federally that advantage is with Harper. And will remain so for the foreseeable.
A comparison of the WR and PCs is also interesting, if less significant. The PCs actually had the advantage in the popular vote, 27.8% against 24.2%. However, they will only end up with half the seats; the WR have 21 seats and will be the official opposition, while the PC will end up in 3rd place with 10 or 11 seats (currently there’s a tie in a Calgary riding between the PCs and the NDP). Extreme perhaps, but this definitely shows the importance of vote distribution efficiency, and again at the federal level Harper has the advantage. This could change over the next 5 months of course, but that’s the present reality.
Sorry everyone, but that’s the way I see it. Enjoy the day, but the fight is far from settled.
Regards
EhBC |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
40313 | Re: Jim Prentice becomes the Kim Campbell of Alberta politics. Is Harper next? | marpincan | 0 | 5/6/2015 3:30:59 PM |
40316 | Re: Jim Prentice becomes the Kim Campbell of Alberta politics. Is Harper next? | Transcanada | 1 | 5/6/2015 5:41:20 PM |