Re: Partnership / Equity Play by BP for Arena?
I'm not saying Jack "likes" Eisai because he enjoys going to Karaoke and enjoying some Sapporo with their CEO. Eisai looks to be a very good partner. One who will focus on Belviq as a major driver of their growth to make them into a Top 10 BP.
The goal of Jack and the BOD is to build shareholder value. My illustration was merely an example. You were the first to say they would be happy to sell of their shares today at $25, no? So if Arena can quickly get the shares to $25 by doing a really creative up-front with an equity play that causes some dilution but ads $1B to the balance sheet and shores up a nice revenue stream 30-37% of NET, that is a bad deal for shareholders?
You would find a deal like this would force a valuation far greater than exists today. ARNA could hit your $25 target with a deal such as this.
This is all just idle speculation and probably way off-base any ways. Just coming up with ideas. The point is that SOMETHING is going down right now. Be it an expanded partnership with Eisai for ROW or with some other BP. My key point is that a BP would probably prefer to buy ARNA for $4B now vs. a big upfront and large royalty rate long term if they believe Belviq to be a blockbuster. I don't believe the BOD of Arena wants to sell at $4B, but maybe they do. I do believe that Eisai would like to shore up the rights to ROW but are in competition for that and need to come up with something creative.
All good problems to have. If you don't like what they ultimately come up with, you can join Fordwill in a shareholder lawsuit. A shareholder lawsuit for a deal that increases shareholder value wouldn't make much sense though.