Nope, I used 1 bill combined for both companies and the 14 x multiplier = 14 bill combined. I didn't worry about reducing for Eisai because GSK didn't reduce the multiplier even though they owned part of HGSI's numbers.
And I agree it's less likely qnexa gets approved in EU but I don't care where the sales occur. If qnexa sells 500 mill in USA and arna sells 500 mill in USA plus EU +ROW my back of envelope number worked. $500 mill of revenue times a 14 multiplier = $7 bill.
We've had the discussion before about what to include for revenue for ARNA and since Eisai is assuming a lot of costs- sales/marketing vs arna's mfg I just make the assumption Arna got a reasonable deal and the profitability will work out when the incentives are included. I don't think ARNA has given up 2/3 of the profit on US sales with their Eisai agreement just because they gave up 2/3 Revenue. We'll have to see how cheap the pills are to mfg and ship.
I still think it's too early for a buyout but if/when it comes I was just pointing out an example that happened today.