My investment thesis is that Oil will hit bottom after 3Q earnings are
in. It promises to be very difficult and cruel reporting period. At that
time the valuation of assets will be revised as well and some companies
will not make it.
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Not that your wrong but the market and the bankers are all very aware of that. It will not be a surprise.
A couple of Cdn companies might not make it, maybe, if oil is in the $50's it will not be a big issue. That is where most price decks are today. If the market and the bankers see production falling in the U.S and the ME getting antsy they may be a little more lenient. The oil sands companies will take the biggest hit so far as valuation of assets but most have deep pockets and their bankers will support them. Earnings yr over yr comparables will turn the corner soon. I expect the market will ride all that out if the bottom in the commodity itself is now behind us. No telling that.