I also have a discrepancy in my spreadsheet for SGY. Yours has to do with production estimates and mine has to do with cash flow. I'm showing in H2 they will have -$10 million in CF at $65 WTI, with production avg 14,250. Yours seems to be using $59 Avg for H2, and 15,326 avg production, and also shows -$12 million.
And here is the fun part, Paul says the payout ratio will be 99%!
Now how can that be. Even if we go with your higher production estimates and lower oil prices it shows a shortfall. Or if we use Pauls production estimate and higher oil prices I still get a shortfall.
With oil at $55 right now instead of $65, its safe to assume SGY will be a tad short if this keeps up. I don't mind financing a shortfall with debt for H2 because I think investors already took a big hit with a 50% reduction in dividends this year and they need time to adjust their incomes and lifestyles. (Since we have ample room on the LOC I'm not bothered by this yet..) However in 2016 the books need to be balanced with a realistic oil price and if it stays at $55wti, I don't think 2.5c a month is a safe assumption.