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Oil and Gas Discussion BB
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Oil....a coming tradable moment* a question I am asking myself this weekend is when does oil become a "good trade." Not a buy for a hold but rather a buy for a trade. * for me, and imo, oil and oil cos are not a buy and hold until WTI hits $70 and stays above that level as that is when, again imo, professional or institutional investors will see oil as a "buy." * WTI might test $53 bl this next week. So if we get some resolution to the Greek and Iranian questions it is then a matter of watching the oil price technical (WTI) and what the North American production and storage trend numbers looks like. * any high quality mid cap or large cap should out-perform as they did with the bounce off of $40ish WTI. * Greek question gets answered on Sunday and the Iranian question should have a lot more clarity by the end of next week as well. Storage numbers and production numbers will also tell a lot next week with respect to trends. * by Friday at noon we might see a bleak and black week ending with a clear down trend and then one waits until the bottom is in and confirmed and then buys on obvious uptrend channel being developed as oil below $60 bl is NOT sustainable for much longer imo. * conversely we could also see a neutral or a positive unfolding events. In the case of the positive I continue to sit on the side-lines as I do not see an obvious way forward being WTI going back to $60 to $65 bl for the next number fo quarters. In the case of a neutral or murky week of data it is a mugs call and the best bet would probably be to continue to sit on one's hands. * the lower oil goes and the quicker it does so the quicker the rebound and the greater the percentage return that one might make before the end of the year or maybe even the end of summer. * WTI at $55 is starting to look attractive for buyers. Now can it dance down to $50? Or even break $50? Not sure it can based on fundamentals but on a thinly traded day or on misplaced sentiment anything is possible. I am starting to get ready. Just in case. * keeping it simple.....factors not too complex and buy(s) would be liquid and industry leading names like CPG, WCP etc. For yanks....lots of great names that would pop under the above scenario(s). |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
32413 | Re: Oil....a coming tradable moment | go blue | 1 | 7/5/2015 12:47:05 AM |
32431 | Re: Oil....a coming tradable moment | Oiljack | 10 | 7/6/2015 10:50:53 AM |