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Oil and Gas Discussion BB
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Re: OPEC oil production at three year highCoolreit: Also, keep in mind that 1) Iraq is cutting payments to it's oil producers. That will result in less, not more oil production going forward, 2) Iranian oil production will be a slow add (even if Obama gives the Iranian terrorists the bomb). Furthermore, we don't know how much oil production leakage there already is through the Russian oil for food deal, and 3) Simmons may have been early in his Twilight in the Dessert call for Saudi Arabia. SA has no more fields to develop and their water cuts had or have been rising for many years. A picture of OPEC production tells a different picture: I have added a couple of charts of the combined Crude Only production of Iraq Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. These are the only countries that have shown any appreciable advance since 2005. The other eight OPEC nations have clearly peaked and since 2005 have been producing every barrel they possibly can, yet their production continues to decline year after year. Two of the countries, Iran and Libya, could produce more but are having serious political problems. Iran is likely to continue increasing production until it reaches about 3.5 mb/d. However this may take several years or until their nuclear problem is completely solved. There is no telling when Libya may get their problems solved. But when they do it is unlikely that they will ever return to even their post revolution high of 1.4 mb/d. I expect that when, if ever, they get their politics straightened out, their maximum production will be around 1.2 mb/d. All the above OPEC data is taken monthly from the “Secondary Sources” section of the table below. Also, keep in mind that 1) Iraq is cutting payments to it's oil producers. That will result in less, not more oil production going forward, 2) Iranian oil production will be a slow add (even if Obama gives the Iranian terrorists the bomb). Furthermore, we don't know how much oil production leakage there already is through the Russian oil for food deal, and 3) Simmons may have been early in his Twilight in the Dessert call for Saudi Arabia. They have no more fields to develop and their water cuts had or have been rising for many years. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
32361 | Re: OPEC oil production at three year high | coolreit | 1 | 7/1/2015 2:17:17 PM |