I tend to agree that there could very well be a surprise in store for us. I have thought this for some months as a result of something I posted I the past regarding the Bakken oil field. I was trying to determine when production would peak and made a joke that April fools could not be ruled out. I have included below a snapshot of what I am talking about and speaks to the point of this article just posted about revisions and underestimating (or overestimating) demand and also
supply.
Noticed that Total production according to EIA for the Bakken totalled 1,319,508 in April (estimated). They estimate by taking the number of rigs two months prior and multiplying by the Bbbls/per/rig average for the current month to get new well production. They make an estimate of total production taking last months production plus new less legacy decline. I did the calculation going back .....Column S Est. Total production. Now look at column U where I show the difference in the estimated and actual. It is the virtually same going back to August 2014! Prior to that you can see the difference in their monthly estimate and actual production. ( -3.3% and -.08% July and Aug) \
So, therefore everything since July 2014 is an estimate of Bakken production. This method is used for all fields and all US shale production so I believe the previous article corresponds to what this also implies. Actual production could be different to what we have been told since July 2014.
Hope you found this amusing.
splurge