Monday, March 04, 2013
Saying “I Told You So”
Can Be So Satisfying
By Rodney Johnson, Editor, Survive & Prosper
Dear Survive & Prosper Reader,
In 2008 I did the unthinkable…
I bought an Apple laptop.
I didn’t want to. Microsoft made me do it. The company introduced Vista, which was the worst operating system I’d dealt with in 25 years of PC experience. I just couldn’t take it anymore, so I braved the Apple store.
I walked in and sheepishly told a 10-year old Apple “Genius” (okay… she was probably 17) that I was new to Apple computing. She welcomed me like a long lost relative and quickly explained how far ahead Apple was of Microsoft.
I had known this for many years, having seen the old bumper sticker “Windows 95 = Macintosh 89” over a decade before.
As I learned how to navigate the MacBook it was obvious the genius was right. It could have just been me, but it seemed we were briefly telepathically linked and she was screaming in her mind “We told you so!”
Here at Dent Research, we’re having our own “I told you so!” moment…
Are you joining Harry in Phoenix this April?
Spots to Harry Dent’s Demographic School are extremely scarce.
In fact, only 150 of our readers can attend.
So if you’re interested in learning firsthand from Harry about the driving force behind his research - I urge you to reserve your spot right away. If you hesitate, I can’t guarantee we’ll have any seats left.
For full details and to reserve you seat now, just go here.
Jonathan Last just published a book entitled, “What to Expect When No One’s Expecting, America’s Coming Demographic Disaster.” His point is that the U.S. is going through a baby bust that will have long-term consequences, as already evidenced in Japan and is certainly underway in China.
Looking at the traditionally high birth rate in the U.S., Long notes that most of the high birthrate in recent decades was attributable to immigrants, not the domestic population. Now immigration has slowed dramatically and those arriving on our shores are choosing to have significantly fewer children.
Less children will mean a smaller workforce in years to come, which will lead to an economic slowdown that affects consumption, GDP, tax revenue, government spending, you name it.
We have one sentiment for Mr. Last…
He’s just become a member of the club we have been hosting for more than two decades.
If Windows 95 = Macintosh 89, then Last 2013 = Dent 1988.
Mr. Last is not the only one to join our club, he is simply the latest one to do so. That’s why I’d like to invite him to our live, two-day conference in April where he can learn even more about how this demographic trend will affect the U.S. economy and economies around the world.
In addition to writing books, giving speeches, appearing on TV and radio programs, and generally gabbing about demographic trends wherever we go, for the last decade we have held this two-day seminar, twice a year. We take the time to walk through how our economy works… how it’s based on a rising population… and how this will all fall apart in the years to come.
Our attendees have walked away year after year knowing what Mr. Last has now published as new findings.
Birthrates are below replacement level in industrial economies. Check.
The U.S. is different, but it is immigrants that make the difference, and that trend has slowed. Check.
The dearth of births has caused massive shocks to other economies, and will do the same thing here. Check.
By knowing these things years ahead of 2013, the people at our seminars understood how the world around them was changing long before the general public.
The slack consumer demand at the end of the last decade… the housing bust… the call for higher taxes to fund unsustainable social programs… these are all part of our discussion.
From individual investors to financial advisors and business owners, each person gets to walk away more confident in knowing the probable path our economy will take, even if that path is not as rosy as we all would like.
And of course our conference gives everyone who attends something else… the ability to tell other people “I told you so,” which, as you know, can be quite satisfying.
P.S. You’ll find all the details you need for our conference this April here. And I extend the invitation not only to Mr. Long, but to you as well. Join us. We look forward to seeing you there.
Ahead of the Curve with Adam O'Dell
Wish I Was There Again
It was at one of Harry’s and Rodney’s Demographics School conferences that I first saw them speak in public. Naturally I had read several of their books, but I’d wanted to see the show in person.
Two things became clear very quickly…
First, Rodney really knows his material. And, he has a knack for connecting with the audience. His use of interesting, real-world examples give life to what would otherwise be boring and complex economic theories. I caught myself became increasingly engaged along with the rest of the audience as Rodney connected the many dots in the organized chaos that is our global economy.
Second, it was immediately evident that Harry knows his cycles better than he knows the back of his hand. With no effort he reached back decades to show how a wave of technological innovations set forth a cyclical boom period. And he warned of a present day phenomenon: the topping of a 29-year commodity super-cycle.
His call for the peaking of a multi-decade commodity cycle struck a chord with me…
At the time, I’d been watching the PowerShares Commodity Index Fund (ARCX: DBC) closely. Seven months before the conference, the fund had suddenly dropped by more than 10% over the space of one week.
I’d had some warning before the plunge of course. My most trusted cycle analysis tool had flashed a warning signal on April 29, just one day before DBC peaked at a high of $32.02.
You can see this warning signal – the first red dot – in this chart of DBC:
See larger image
After forecasting the April peak, my cycle analysis tool picked up subsequent peaks in June, July and September (also in red). By the time I got to Demographics School that November (highlighted with a blue circle in the chart above) I was already wondering – are commodities done?
Harry answered that question. Not only did he walk through the previous peaks and valleys of the commodity cycle, he explained the fundamental factors weighing heavily on commodity prices back then. His fundamental analysis, and long-term cyclical analysis, neatly synced up with the shorter-term cycle peaks I had started picking up earlier that year.
It’s now well over a year since that session of Demographics School and Harry remains adamant that commodities – particularly gold – face a grim future. In fact, he forecasts that gold will ultimately slam back down to $750 an ounce before the end of this decade. But not before we see one possible last rally.
He and Rodney will give you the details at Demographic School in April. Do yourself a favor. Be there.