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NAVB Oldtimers Lounge
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Re: Presentation on Cash Flow Breakeven Looking back, here are the 4 Upcoming Milestones that were listed in the 2015 Bio CEO presentation: 1) Accelerate revenue growth under new US labels 2) Initiate commercialization efforts in EU 3) Divest neuroimaging assets 4) Manocept diagnostic and therapeutic pipeline expansion Results: 1) Epic fail - there has been growth in LS sales, but the rate of growth has slowed down (mathematically this would be deacceleration), which is disturbing recognizing the significant fixed costs the company has absorbed and that this is our CEO's core competency 2) Pass - with how generically this milestone is stated, this could have been satisfied by a two minute conversation 3) Fail - after the wording in today's presentation (i.e. the company isn't sure this will be finalized in Q2), we know that it will take 2 years+ to divest of NAV4694. Based on the history of wording used in calls and at presentations, I would also conjecture that there was a deal in hand fourth quarter of 2015, which Navidea lost. 4) You decide - while technically a pass in the generic sense that it is stated, Navidea also did not achieve the pipeline expansion that was anticipated when this goal was made Bottom line: If you can believe them sales growth should pass cash burn in Q2 and if 4694 only cost 150k each month why would that prevent break even?I don't believe them - not because I don't think it is achievable, but because I don't think they (current management) can achieve it. |
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