|
|
$PEAK
|
|
||
Re: Surge Energy increases NAV to $5.47 per shareAs far as "any good reasons why"... Here's my thoughts on the headline (I want to like this company, I really do): "Surge Energy increases NAV to $5.47 per share" This
number is basically bogus, as risk is excluded. Nearly 60% of the NPV
value is for undeveloped locations. Nearly 40% of the NPV value is for
undeveloped probable locations. Between the allocated acreage value and
the probable location value, 46% of the "value" is speculative at best. If
you are extremely generous and give them 25% chance of success on the
probables and acreage, the resulting NAV is under $3.50. Giving the
acreage and probables more than 25% chance of success, at this stage, is
foolhardy. If
you wanted a realistic NAV, you could take 95% of the PDPs, 85% of the
PDNP & PUDs, 25% of the probables and 10% of the acreage. This
results in a NAV that's a hair over $3/share. Worst case liquidation would be PDP - net debt = $1.66/share. This would be more inline with the classical Graham/Dodd NAV evaluation. I believe Surge
is worth more than $1.66/share, but it's not worth $5.47/share. To
focus on the $5.47 number is disingenuous and borders on being
"promoter-like". |
return to message board, top of board |
Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
53081 | Re: Surge Energy increases NAV to $5.47 per share | Alain1601 | 3 | 2/24/2017 3:06:08 PM |
53095 | Re: Surge Energy increases NAV to $5.47 per share | pookie16 | 1 | 2/25/2017 1:55:15 PM |