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Re: Insurance/Climate ChangeYou are correct akguy - it is rather a "goof read." I do not have much time here but just wished to point out a few very simple and serious flaws in Mr Kopits's arguments. The first is the simple assumption that local effects in one self important continental sized country acts as a proxy for global conditions - it doesn't. The second fallacy is taking a time limited and selective sea level chart from one isolated location (Manhattan?) and assuming (extrapolting from) that it applies equally everywhere - it doesn't. With regard to sea level rise at any location on any contact between land and ocean anywhere on the globe the rate of relative sea level rise (or fall) is a combination of at least two major variables. The first is true sea level rise and fall (Eustasy) - the second is variable rates of movement of land up and down (Isostasy). Without teasing out the effects of both mechanisms at any location - and presenting the data in short time segments - any interpretation is possible - but not all interpretations are correct. Gotta go here so cut this short for now. The only other thing I'll add is that by cherry picking the time segments you can make any thesis seem possible and there are all the decadal variations and natural cycles to contend with. So where he so self righteously points out tat there is "no trend" - others looking at the same or longer term data can see very obvious ones. Even I can see many different trends that can be picked from the data as presented - any of which could be fallacious. Like I say - with two huge such fallacies (parochialism verses globalism) and misleading evidence about sea level changes locally and extrapolating globally (all in the absence of any understanding of isostatic effects) means that the whole tenor of the piece is seriously flawed right from the start! It has an easily identified agenda to which the data are artfully cherry picked to support. Regards as always - but get it right - get it global - and get it comprehensive with regard to the basic science! Thanks GS |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
45459 | Re: Insurance/Climate Change G Swami | ScottMc | 3 | 10/10/2015 6:17:57 PM |
45460 | Re: Insurance/Climate Change | akguy | 2 | 10/10/2015 8:56:00 PM |