I think Belski forgot about normal decline rates on existing projects around the world and he seems totally oblivious to the very big decline rates of shale. Pretty glaring oversight.
Expect a lot of volatility but hopefully the last month is the worst of this oil cycle. That was my thinking in starting to buy lately. Oil demand in China has not rolled over despite almost the entire market believing it has. Opec when they get their act together will be a bonus, those that don't believe they will are fooling themselves, they always have come to the table eventually. This is not the 1980's.